Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 K D Kakes 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Frosty Invasion 2.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Dashing Della 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Spatial Reality 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Sarah’s Pride 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Delightful Rita 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 La Chance 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sevier 1.60 1 2-1
2 1 Glory Road 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Risk Profile 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Funny Joke 6.00 3 6-1
1A 7 Alcools 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 2 Charlie Five O 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Blake B. 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Biogio’s Rose S.) – Biogio’s Rose S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Timeless Journey 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Know It All Audrey 1.60 1.1 2-1
1 1 Mia Bea Star 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Captainsdaughter 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Impazible Donna 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Icy Stare Down 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Captivating Cara 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Fantail (GB) 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Brisky Frolic 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Sweet as Sugar 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 London Gold 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Timed Out 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Desert Dalliance 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Preposterous 4.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Anileate 4.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Divine Wine 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Just a Nyquist 10.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Tonight We Love 10.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Yogi 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 There Be Dragons 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Old Point 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Proven Hope 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Warrior Richard 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Downtown Connector 10.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Stormandy 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Steady Progress 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Lefty’s War 20.00 9 17-1
2 2 Let Freedom Spring 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Scilly Cay 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Excellent Timing 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Warriors Revenge 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Writer’s Regret 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Foolish Ghost 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Quickflash 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 First Deputy 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Frigid Lady 0.80 1 2-1
8 8 Pebble Lane 4.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Amanda’s Folly 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Bella Michelle 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Maggie T 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Hypnocurrency 12.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Shasi 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Joey the Fish 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Laochi 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Don’t Quit Jackie 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Queens Over Threes 6.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Pauciloquent 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Forever Amy 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Princess Sonya 10.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Sweet Fury 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Spooky Lady 12.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Super Princess 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Glocca Morra 15.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Phinneys Harbor 15.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Georgie’s Ladies 20.00 8.5 16-1
7 7 Red Jasmine 30.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.