Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 See Sassy Run 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lacis Jewel 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Be a Bandit 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Storied Trip 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Cajun Shots 10.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Missgreeley’ssong 10.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Kehron’s Creed 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 My Little Jen 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Strummer 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Indimaaj 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Two Dot 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Charli Michael 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Boyfriend Material 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Counter Offer 4.50 5.2 10-1
2 2 Blushinstreetdevil 8.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Tappin Fora Dance 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Itellyouthefacts 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Foolish Dreams 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Juju Nineteen 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 My Heavy Son 6.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Chapel of Dreams 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Totally Addicted 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Rock Star Alex 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Sir Pokerface 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Hope for Change 15.00 8 15-1
3 3 Band Boss 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 De Saix 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Money Run 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Machine Gun Man 4.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Western Command 6.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 F J’s Flaco 12.00 5.6 10-1
1 1 Kbcya Later 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mangelsen 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Mr. Four Sevens 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Coffee County 4.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Perrins 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Deer Crossing 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Maga Man 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Lauri’s Wish 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Bind Faith 15.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Unanimously 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Play Mo 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Guitartuition Plzz 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Creole Charlie 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Cryptozonic 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Binding Agreement 4.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Fiery Playboy 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Wise Anchor 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 Young Tuscan 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Wrongwayhighway 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Janets Jay Jay 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 The Princess Says 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Peacock Alley 2.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Dial Toni 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Lady Huxley 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Expect a Dancer 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Crimaldi 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Marmo Moon 8.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Time to Close 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Therideofalifetime 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sutherland 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Sky and Sand 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 On Your Mark 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Robo 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Fortuity 4.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Minnesota Ready 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Simply Wicked 15.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Coltonator 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 He’smyhoneybadger 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Love Creed 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Madison’s Screen 3.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Run Away Samari 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Dreamed I Am Fast 10.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 All American Pat 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Peripheral Vision 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Continental Red 20.00 7 13-1
4 4 Grace’s Soldier 20.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Amys Candy 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Midnight Flame 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.