Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Balentina 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Herecomes Scarlett 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Bella Cosa 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Graceful 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Dreamawayseven 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Becauseofthebrave 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Greatest Love 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Twice Smitten 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Saratoga Beauty 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Icy Reply 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Stencil 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Bells On Her Toes 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 5 Bastet 1.80 1 2-1
1 4 Raffinity 1.80 1 2-1
2 1 Freddymo Factor 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 6 Run Up the Score 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 2 London Gold 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 7 Idaka 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 8 More Mango 15.00 8 15-1
4 3 Easy Play 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Spelterini 1.00 1 2-1
4 4 Risk Free 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Coolcalm Collected 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mayhem Miss 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Tooshay 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 My Girl Jal 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Afjan 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Pressure 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Legendary Lore 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Achilles Heel 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Norgay 5.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Open Til Midnight 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Clash A. J. 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Going in Style 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Midtown Lights 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Monroe 2.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 I’mhavingamoment 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Sweetest Princess 5.00 2 4-1
1 1 Luna Loca 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Harlan’s Bond 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Lavon 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mommasgottarun 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Pharoah’s Heart 3.00 1.3 3-1
2 2 Movie Moxy 3.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Honey Money 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Toned Up 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Self Isolation 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Empire Sky 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Ten Cent Town 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 On the Ledge 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Scherzando 5.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Superb Surprise 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Tie Breaker 12.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Stonecoldwarrior 20.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Central Station 30.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.