Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Alliaceous 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Spellbinding 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Isolation 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Kittenofthe Court 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Beautiful Ending 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Averi Ever After 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 L G Girl 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 The Grey Beauty 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Bet On Bourbon 1.80 1.2 2-1
2 2 Ryan’s Grace 4.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Swirling Wine 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Happy Sails 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Allstar Magic 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Lumberjack Empire 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Brightnmorningstar 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Cpriority 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Northernreflection 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Cheatin Charlie 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Bankroll 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 J B Gray 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 The Three Ks 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Chrompton 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 One Tough Charlie 10.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Justa Buster 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 I Don’t Venmo 2.50 1 2-1
13 13 Kajun Karma 4.50 2.2 4-1
7 7 The Boss Soss 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Mo Credo 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Ranch Water 4.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Go Brother Go 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Stiff Drink 10.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Frenchy Departed 8.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Western Star 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Peanut N Ike 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Salute Now 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Regal Kingdom 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Manly Deeds 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Trader Price 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Our Heatseeker 4.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Prince Perfecta 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Cajun Connection 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Iron N Steel 6.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Iron Moon 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Boston Blitz 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Run On Aces 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Sea of Light 20.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Creole Reb 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Merlazza 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Bru Na Boinne 4.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Stellar Lady 4.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 Huntleigh 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Miss Tappy Tone 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Sweet Alyssa 12.00 7 13-1
9 9 Pasta Salad Rhonda 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Saenz 15.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Nomadic Pride 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Salvaje 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Rose Palace 3.50 1.5 3-1
12 12 Mercy Warren 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Perfect Happiness 4.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Misty Day 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Margie’s Kitchen 3.50 5.2 10-1
6 6 Texas Bluebonnet 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 High Speed 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Lady Jeopardy 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Rumpus 12.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Rookery 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Miss G G 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sweet Chablis 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Dialherup 4.50 2.1 4-1
11 11 Freedom for All 8.00 2.3 4-1
13 13 Raggity Sand 8.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Corsini 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Graceful Union 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Super Luxe 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Origami Girl 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Persimmon Hill 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 New Beat 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Bella Paloma 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Dare to Wish 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Mystical Fire 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lady Samaritan 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.