Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 War Ensign 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Two Hands Full 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Last Penalty 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Honest Angus 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Abby Dabby 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Sweetasbaily 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Iddy Biddy 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mystic Creed 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Conflicting Tales 3.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 My Sweet Summer 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 San Mateo Kat 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Rosie’s Angus 5.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Montana Rose 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Dixie Street 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Bootsie’s Galaxy 2.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Baseball Lover 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 My Man Louie 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Hostile Afleet 6.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Cohere 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Jeb’s Lucky Eight 12.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Flashy Premo 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 State School Smart 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Call Me Q 6.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Cloud Without Rein 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Flying Carolina 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Little Man Can 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Kislovodsk 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Liberty’s Hauler 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Silver Bull 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Professor Higgins 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Opalescence 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fastnfurious 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cat Five 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 G’s Law 4.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Midnight Hunter 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Foe 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Fowler Castle 6.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Ronnie’s Reasoning 20.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Roll On Out 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bishops Bay 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 First Defender 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Demolition Duke 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Princely 10.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Motown Missile 20.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Three On the Tree 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Butler Cabin 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tapthedrum 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Promise Me a Ride 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Scat Danz 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Gettleman 8.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Moesahandful 12.00 7 13-1
12 12 Solomon Vandy 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 More Than Five 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Stayinyourlane 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Two Rivers Over 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mo Saturdays 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Hot Cuppa Coffee 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Three Rough Shods 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Deccan Prince (IRE) 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ann’s Storm 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Start Well 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Lady Churchill 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Crider Chase 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Kaitlyn’s Court 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 I Dont Know Either 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Star’s Dream 10.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Zeerock 12.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Overly Sweet 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.