Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mount Kenya 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Whitaker 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Stockpiler 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Nate’s Revenge 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Kidyounot 5.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Mad Adam 6.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Silent Power 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Criminal Defense 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sermononthemount 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Blueridge Mountain 2.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Landofthepharaohs 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Keys Included 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Mias Moonbeam 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Palatial Times 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 The Gray Blur 15.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Plemmonston 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sunday Breeze 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Kingofbrokenhearts 4.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Cheerfor Mshawish 6.00 2 4-1
1 1 Runninginthemoney 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Guitartuition Plzz 8.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Heza Pickle 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Iron in the Fire 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kislovodsk 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Conrad the Red 2.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Golden Flash 8.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Humor Me Please 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Sailor’s Return 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 La Boucane 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Chili Red 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Open Road 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Fieldstone 5.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Eye Dee Kay 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Unified Dreams 4.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Bonus Appreciation 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Russian Tank 20.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 New Year Surprise 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Syvestar 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Peso Pesado 1.80 1 2-1
9 9 Buck’s Glory 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Run Carlos 8.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Settle On Somethin 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 True Crimson 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Main Dude 15.00 3 6-1
5 5 My Pal Sweet 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Starport 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Dial Uncle Joey 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Kyle Beauty 1.20 1 2-1
8 8 Seriously Sam 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Cajun Gumbow 5.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Jacks Run Wild 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Cute Dinero Queen 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 Shelli’s Angel 6.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Sweet Vidalia 15.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Viola Star 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Dream On It 15.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Brave City Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Gypsyroselee 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Zippin Gigi 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Button Boy 4.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Underhill’s Tab 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Twirling Roses 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Greys the Boy 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 He’s a Bomb 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Our Freddie Mac 10.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Supremely 12.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Father Goose 12.00 8 15-1
7 7 Trigger Happy 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 R T’s Iron Man 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Inspector Ed 3.00 1.1 2-1
11 11 Vero Campione 6.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Tsuris 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Uncle Jett 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 St Pierre 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Joey’s Game 6.00 4 8-1
12 12 Valid Early 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Hard Kings 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Mine Your Biz 30.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Eliezer 30.00 11.1 21-1
9 9 Admiral Afleet 30.00 11.7 22-1
14 14 Kats Pick 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Play Master 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Shankinstine 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Star Ready 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.