Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 25, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Crescent City Derby) – Crescent City Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Benoit 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Allnight Moonlight 1.80 1.1 2-1
8 8 Late September 5.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Mangum 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Kajun Karma 12.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Mor Big Lee 10.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 I Don’t Venmo 6.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Calibrachoa Kid 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 King’s Glory 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Castlewarden 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Coaches Meeting 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Billy Jack 3.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 River Raft 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Harbour Bridge 5.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Noble Reality (FR) 5.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Billy Bob Rocket 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Crescent City Oaks) – Crescent City Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Free Drop Maddy 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Guitar Woman 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Alpine Mist 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Olivia G 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Louisiana Liberty 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Star Moment 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 New Destiny 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Costa Rising S.) – Costa Rising S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bertie’s Galaxy 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Bron and Brow 1.80 3.9 7-1
7 7 Brian’s Iron Mike 8.00 5 9-1
8 8 Big Chopper 3.50 6.5 12-1
3 3 X Clown 6.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Yankee Seven 4.50 7.2 14-1
5 5 Fiesty Fist 15.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Relentless Dancer 15.00 11 21-1
6 6 Vodka Gimlet 10.00 11.5 22-1
13 13 Hooray Austin 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Oh My Aching Arch 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Swot Analysis 2.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Apache Tears 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 My Pal Mattie 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Helaire 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mike J 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bru Na Boinne 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Huntleigh 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sweet Alyssa 12.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Stellar Lady 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Saenz 15.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Merlazza 1.80 2.6 5-1
7 7 Pasta Salad Rhonda 12.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Nomadic Pride 10.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Miss Tappy Tone 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Ervadean 0 0-1
2 2 Master Som 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Twin Mischief 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Golden View 8.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Perfect Wish 10.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Sandra D 10.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Sweet Shild O Mine 15.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Conceptualize 4.00 5 9-1
10 10 She’smysmokeshow 30.00 5 9-1
11 11 K’antheia 10.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Angora Deb 5.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Ervadean 12.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Princess Pom Pom 20.00 6.8 13-1
14 14 Storm Bay 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 First Love 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Mystical Fire 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Bella Paloma 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Graceful Union 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sweet Chablis 4.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Dialherup 4.50 6.8 13-1
3 3 Raggity Sand 8.00 8 15-1
12 12 Corsini 8.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Super Luxe 8.00 8.2 16-1
1 1 Origami Girl 12.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 New Beat 15.00 8.9 17-1
11 11 Freedom for All 5.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Dare to Wish 20.00 9.4 18-1
13 13 Lady Samaritan 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Persimmon Hill 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Tom Benson Memorial S.) – Tom Benson Memorial S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Adventuring 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 New Year’s Eve 5.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Trail Ridge Road 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Island Hideaway (GB) 15.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 She Can’t Sing 4.50 6.3 12-1
7 7 Trobairitz 12.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 New Boss 12.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Russian Mafia 20.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Didia (ARG) 3.00 9.8 18-1
5 5 Gather as You Go 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (New Orleans Classic S. Presented By Relyne Gi By Hagyard) – New Orleans Classic S. Presented By Relyne Gi By Hagyard

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pioneer of Medina 0 0-1
2 2 Art Collector 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 West Will Power 2.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Mr. Wireless 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Pioneer of Medina 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Rattle N Roll 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Happy American 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Treasury 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Trafalgar 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Muniz Memorial Classic S. Presented By Horse Racing Nation) – Muniz Memorial Classic S. Presented By Horse Racing Nation

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Been Patient 0 0-1
5 5 Spooky Channel 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Atone 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Gentle Soul 5.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Another Mystery 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Two Emmys 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tiz the Bomb 10.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 English Tavern 12.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Rising Empire 20.00 9 17-1
10 10 Native Thunder 30.00 9.7 18-1
9 9 Risk Manager 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Fair Grounds Oaks Presented By Fasig-tipton) – Fair Grounds Oaks Presented By Fasig-tipton

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Christian d’Oro 0 0-1
3 3 Pretty Mischievous 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Hoosier Philly 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Christian d’Oro 15.00 2 4-1
1 1 Southlawn 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 The Alys Look 2.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby) – Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Jace’s Road 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Disarm 10.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Shopper’s Revenge 12.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Kingsbarns 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Curly Jack 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Sun Thunder 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Cagliostro 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Tapit’s Conquest 10.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Instant Coffee 2.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Single Ruler 15.00 8 15-1
10 10 Denington 12.00 10.3 19-1
12 12 Baseline Beater 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Got Me a Chrysler 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Steauxlit 4.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Iron Moon 20.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Aztec Gem 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Macho Beanie 4.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Reddingandlee 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Malaki Empire 5.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Zinging Bayou 12.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Ourperfectprince 30.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Josie’s Priority 12.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 City of Love 8.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Colt’s Brim 20.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Contraband Early 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 14 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 George Allen 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 G’wildcat 4.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Binding Agreement 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Lauri’s Wish 15.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Hooray Austin 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Coach Kenny 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Available Star 6.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Wise Anchor 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Hail State 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Tambourine Star 15.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Autumns Strong Man 20.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Half Again 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 X Clown 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 15 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Splitting Aces 0 0-1
4 4 Sweet Alexis 8.00 1 2-1
13 13 Starsnmotion 8.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Visionista 15.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Lightening Mo 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Splitting Aces 20.00 6 11-1
8 8 R T’s Cajun Lady 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Custom Comedy 5.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Certified Gem 6.00 8.2 15-1
10 10 Calcite 8.00 9 17-1
12 12 Kisster 20.00 9.4 18-1
11 11 Chuchi 12.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Vivi Did It 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Pursuit l’Harmonie 5.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.