Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 31, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Randomized 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Gifted 2.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Avant 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Dolce Sera 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Katie’s Checkride 10.00 6 11-1
4 4 Accel Rose 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Strange Fruit 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Ukrainian Princess 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Aeron Warrior 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 My Inner Voice 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Super Princess 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Northern Ballet 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Babi Dreams 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Curbstone 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Montauk Point 2.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Exit Right 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Complete Agenda 6.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Magia Nera 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Royal Tryst 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ok Honey 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Cinderella’s Cause 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Girl of Tosconova 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Indian Bella 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Its Cold in Dehere 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Gagliano 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Keen Dancer 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Gringotts 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Paros 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Camm’ Duke 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Little Luca 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Swifty Devil 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Bad Water 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Playingwithmatches 8.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Dee’s Speedstre 20.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Sounds Spooky 30.00 8 15-1
Swifty Devil 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bella Principessa 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cadencia 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Cupids Girl 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Vodkatini 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Wishing On a Star 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Game Theory 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Captivating Cara 10.00 8 15-1
2 2 True Empress 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Nineteen Oysters 1.00 1 2-1
6 6 Victory Money 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Dr. Kraft 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Kerness 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 American Grant 15.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Mighty Atlas 20.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Hot Rod Lincoln 50.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Old Point 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Proven Hope 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Warrior Richard 4.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Steady Progress 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Ghoststryder 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Eternal Glory 12.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Disturbed 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Wealllikedhim 30.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.