Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 1, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gut Feeling 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Salto de Tigre 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Norgay 3.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Smoke and Heat 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Afjan 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Dontbelate 15.00 6 11-1
Afjan 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Central Pride 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Trevor Bardette 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Juggler 3.50 1.9 3-1
1 1 Clash A. J. 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Got the Gold 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Always Charming 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Mshindi 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bronx Bomber 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Quick Return 4.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Foolish Ghost 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Gandy Dancing 4.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Runningwscissors 5.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Majestic Tiger 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Masked Marauder 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Simply 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Lafitte’s Fleet 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Gentleman Joe 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Alcools 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Lost in Rome 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Blake B. 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Jumpster 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bourbon Chase 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Blue Plate Special 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Pete N Billy 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Meteorite 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Freudmein 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Z Dancer 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Caldo Candy 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Forty One Tales 15.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Fluorescent Bay 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Brunate 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Can’t Beat Me 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 El Mayor 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Storm Shooter 4.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Fenway 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Spectatorless 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Catching Cupid 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 R Boy Cheekum 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Life Changer 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Money Supply 4.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Jake Rocks 4.50 1.3 3-1
3 3 Silver Seeker 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Kaz’s Beach 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Watasha 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 American Law 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Handsome Cat 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Ryan’s Cat 12.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Hold the Salsa 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Excelsior S.) – Excelsior S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Law Professor 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Miles D 2.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Bourbonic 4.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Keystone Field 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Curlin’s Wisdom 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Forewarned 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Portos 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Super Coach Fred 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Bold Honor 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Brass Monkey 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Let Freedom Spring 6.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Grand Again 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Zoomster 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Despeight Fortune 20.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Sharpoon 30.00 9 17-1
4 4 Awesome Weapon 30.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.