Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 7, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Alexandra’s Song 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bledsoe 2.00 1.5 3-1
14 14 Tranche 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Early Munny 8.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Callin My Name 15.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Nurcan 3.50 5.7 11-1
7 7 Mischief Joke 30.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Prince of Power 30.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Beaudacious Colton 20.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Hold the Phone 30.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 West Saratoga 20.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Who’s Snow Trouble 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Vitement 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Baytown Admiral 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Baytown Parfait 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 The Rush Is On 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Contrive 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Missile 5.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Stunningly 10.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 American Retro 6.00 1.5 3-1
10 10 Active Lane 20.00 1.7 3-1
14 14 Lady Samaritan 10.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Upper Case 8.00 2 4-1
6 6 Domina 12.00 2 4-1
9 9 Forenoon 4.00 3.1 6-1
15 15 Afternoon Tea 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Beach Walkn 10.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Rock the Nile 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Fracing Lucky 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Gather 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Destine to Race 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Nikki M P 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hayunevano 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Condone 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Forever Dixie 4.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Mustang Lady 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Comparative 2.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Chiquita Mosca 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 East Shore 20.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Cotton Candy Annie 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Closed Caption 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Camp Hope 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Hozier 15.00 2.9 5-1
12 12 Beatbox 20.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Fancy Liquor 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Duke of Hazzard (FR) 4.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Eons 6.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Greyes Creek 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Kentucky Ghost 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Tiz the Bomb 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Henley’s Joy 8.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Hurricane Dream (FR) 3.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Background 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Black Forest 10.00 1 2-1
11 11 Ro Town 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Half a Chance 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Peacock Alley 4.50 3.7 7-1
8 8 Ziaerati 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Bobbie Sox 30.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Vahva 6.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Secret Statement 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Positano Sunset 5.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Just Like Magic 20.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Peacock Lass 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Charlee Mae 30.00 9.4 18-1
14 14 Miss Peabody 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Shoplifter 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Unsung Melody 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Bizzy Girl 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Linguistic 0 0-1
8 8 Kaufymaker 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Frozen Solid 4.50 3 6-1
6 6 Her World (IRE) 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Laugh and Play 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Linguistic 15.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Awesome Lawson 50.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Covenant Lady 30.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Dressed 20.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Nota Bene 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Lafayette S.) – Lafayette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hejazi 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Corona Bolt 2.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Gulfport 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Lugan Knight 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Hurricane J 20.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Determinedly 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Freezing Point 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S.) – Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Dude N Colorado (GB) 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Nagirroc 8.00 1.3 3-1
8 8 Candidate 10.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Wonderful Justice (GB) 12.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Mo Stash 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Andthewinneris 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Mi Hermano Ramon 15.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Rarified Flair 20.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Freedom Trail 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Webslinger 5.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Movisitor 50.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Carl Spackler (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Central Bank Ashland S.) – Central Bank Ashland S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Defining Purpose 0 0-1
2 2 Wonder Wheel 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Punchbowl 2.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Defining Purpose 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Effortlesslyelgant 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Julia Shining 3.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Guns n’ Graces 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Pride of the Nile 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Hay Stack 0 0-1
8 8 Lil Miss Moonlight 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Doral 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Penumbras Maker 4.50 2.3 4-1
11 11 Best Performer 12.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Pedigeek 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Costa Bella 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Hay Stack 4.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Robin Sage 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Idle Chatter 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Heckled 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Wits and Wagers 30.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Mischief Lily 20.00 7.9 15-1
14 14 Silent Story 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Rosy Tomorrows 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kingmaking (GB) 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Time to Race 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.