Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 8, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Super Renee 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Only Time 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Halo of Fire 3.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Proud Foot 2.50 5.1 10-1
6 6 Azul Tequila 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Social Mandate 4.50 6.1 11-1
7 7 Chi Town Heat 8.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Ms Hayley 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Gin N Sin 30.00 8 15-1
11 11 Lucy Jane 15.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Cupids Payday 30.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Hot Anna 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Miss Foxann 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Kotyle 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wicked Again 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Equivoque 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Dual Monarchy 20.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Le Bar 4.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Home Run Hank 15.00 5 9-1
9 9 Just a Photo 15.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Mullikin 3.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Accident 30.00 9.1 17-1
5 5 Regal Rey 20.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Bettera 2.50 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mamba On Three 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Ibrim 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Tightrope 4.50 1.1 2-1
12 12 Kanthari 6.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Willtorun 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Sky and Sand 10.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Awesome Aaron 30.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Mischievous Rogue 8.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Diamond City 20.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 Stonevicious 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Baytown Bear 15.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Jeopardy Theory 30.00 8.7 16-1
16 16 Fitzpatrick 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Agent Peter Graves 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Let My People Go 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Our Shot 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fortin Hill 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Kneedeepinsnow 4.00 3.4 7-1
8 8 Chasing Time 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Three Technique 3.50 5.9 11-1
2 2 Sir Alfred James 4.50 6 11-1
3 3 Dash Attack 12.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Manny Wah 3.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Steinbeck 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Commonwealth S.) – Commonwealth S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Falcon’s Mo 0 0-1
Heart Rhythm 0 0-1
7 7 Run Classic 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Here Mi Song 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Nakatomi 2.00 5 10-1
4 4 Heart Rhythm 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Hoist the Gold 8.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Pro Oxidant 12.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Get Her Number 4.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Spankster 30.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Long Range Toddy 30.00 8.7 16-1
5 5 Legionnaire 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Appalachian S. Presented By Japan Racing Association) – Appalachian S. Presented By Japan Racing Association

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Pleasant Passage 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Alpha Bella 4.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Cairo Consort 3.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Papilio (IRE) 6.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Heavenly Sunday 8.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Well Into 10.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Sabalenka 30.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Be Your Best (IRE) 8.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Beautifulnavigator (IRE) 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Madison S.) – Madison S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Goodnight Olive 0.40 1 2-1
3 3 Society 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Yuugiri 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Maryquitecontrary 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Cocktail Moments 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Shakertown S.) – Shakertown S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Artemus Citylimits 5.00 1 2-1
12 12 Arrest Me Red 4.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Caravel 1.60 2.5 5-1
2 2 Mark of the Z 20.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Mister Mmmmm 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Bad Beat Brian 15.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Oceanic 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Johnny Unleashed 30.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Stitched 30.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Bakers Bay 10.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Noble Emotion 30.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 All in Sync 20.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Nobody Listens 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Toyota Blue Grass S.) – Toyota Blue Grass S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Scoobie Quando 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Verifying 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tapit Trice 2.50 1.9 4-1
11 11 Mendelssohns March 20.00 4 8-1
9 9 Major Blue 30.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Raise Cain 4.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Classic Car Wash 12.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Clear the Air 30.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Sun Thunder 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Blazing Sevens 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Hayes Strike 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Squire Creek 1.20 1 2-1
4 4 Blue Light 3.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Gilcrease 2.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Notah 20.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Frog Town 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Libertango 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Deer District 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Uncle Headley 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mondego (GB) 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Scat Tu Tap 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Operation Torch 1.60 2.8 5-1
6 6 He’s Got Swagger 5.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 My Boy Tony 10.00 3 6-1
8 8 Decanted 20.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Lincoln Highway 30.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Augustus Blue 30.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Fixitwithforward 30.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Wimhof 20.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Collier’s Time 20.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Regimental 20.00 9.3 17-1
13 13 Royal Sandrin 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Gettleman 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Just So 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Monba Quake 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.