Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 April’s No Fool 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Princess Nina 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Abitibi 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Supertaleofhoudini 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Edgee Angel 2.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Mirth ‘n Merriment 3.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Dorota 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Revs Run 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Mourne Mountains 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Next Dot 10.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Greenteaze 5.00 1.2 2-1
12 12 Hibernacle 2.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Happy Baytown 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Unheard 3.50 1.3 2-1
11 11 Hollywoodboulevard 10.00 1.3 2-1
16 16 Baytown Kitty Cat 12.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 My Sweetheart Dani 20.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Joia Rara 20.00 1.5 3-1
10 10 Bootsy’s Merlot 30.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Midnight Angel 30.00 1.7 3-1
15 15 Green Chile 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Miss Athletic 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Mombayla 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Boyne Valley 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Amaretti 1.00 1 2-1
7 7 Preempt 12.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Kid’s Last Laugh 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Blame the Toll 6.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Heart Headed Woman 15.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 The Princess Says 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Kiki Krazy 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Heartbreaker 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Baby Quinn 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Don’t Wait Up 3.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Oxwood 30.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 French Composer 12.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Color Field 8.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Keen Heir 6.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Headline Report 3.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Mr. Cunningham 15.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Born Flawless 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Maintainer 20.00 1 2-1
8 8 Dripping Gold 2.50 1.2 2-1
11 11 Explosive 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Solid Country Gold 15.00 4 8-1
3 3 Jarreau 3.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Policy Option 4.50 4.6 9-1
10 10 Iconic Adventure 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Jr’s Gift 30.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 F Five 15.00 10.3 19-1
6 6 What Say Thee 20.00 10.7 20-1
1 1 Spin Wheel 20.00 10.7 20-1
5 5 Nicholas Jones 30.00 12.1 23-1
16 16 Arabian Prince 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sailor’s Return 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Always Above 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Maasai Warrior 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Money Run 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Chambers Bay 30.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Counterspy 3.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Fight Fiercely 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Street Swagg 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Soft Pants 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Hill of Tara 20.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Captain Jack 15.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Oddsontony 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Flirting Bridge (IRE) 1.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sister Lou Ann 8.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Choctaw Bingo 20.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Bhoma 20.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Lady Puchi 10.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Sweet Serenade 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Under One Sky 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 One Time Mo 20.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Mademoiselle Nova 50.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Blissful 4.50 7.5 14-1
4 4 Woohoo Jackie Blue 30.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Texas Magic 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Take a Stand 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lovely Princess 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Elle’sbigseacret 12.00 1 2-1
9 9 Tiz Our Turn 20.00 1 2-1
10 10 High Heater 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Improbable Story 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Two Worlds 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Caramel Chip 1.20 4 8-1
4 4 Crosstown Shootout 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Keen On You 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Gormleys Got Game 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Vettori Kin (BRZ) 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.