Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 13, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Invaluable 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Alarm Clock 1.80 1.4 3-1
4 4 Pretty Rachel 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Talk Radio 3.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Princesstapiture 15.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Liberty Belle 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 La Tourista 10.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 La Cumparsita 15.00 8 15-1
6 6 Sonador 8.00 9.3 17-1
2 2 Runaway Mom 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Saddle Up 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sonofaship 6.00 1.9 3-1
13 13 Dunphy 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Hob Alwatan 1.60 4.4 8-1
9 9 Mangione 8.00 5.9 11-1
14 14 Baytown Admiral 10.00 6 11-1
12 12 Ore Mine 10.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Baytown Parfait 12.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Techne 20.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Green Chile 15.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Lou’s Legacy 30.00 9.5 18-1
3 3 Let’s Go Mark 20.00 9.6 18-1
11 11 The Rush Is On 30.00 12.5 24-1
5 5 Boy Por Uno 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Goodbetterbest 5.00 1 2-1
8 8 Powder My Nose 4.50 2.8 5-1
10 10 Lotsandlotsofgold 6.00 2.9 5-1
13 13 Amenset 3.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Hurry Up Chic Chic 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Catherine Blaze 30.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Toffee 3.50 11.6 22-1
11 11 Indy Again 8.00 12.4 23-1
4 4 Shear 12.00 12.7 24-1
6 6 Rudimentary Drink 20.00 12.7 24-1
9 9 Azamana Empire 10.00 12.8 24-1
14 14 Promisemeparadise 10.00 13.5 25-1
12 12 Colonel Grace 10.00 13.5 26-1
3 3 Chicago Typhoon 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bourbon Creed 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Judge Davis 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Patient Capital 1.60 4.4 8-1
4 4 Keen On You 30.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Page One 2.00 6 11-1
2 2 Amani’s Eagle 30.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 War Room 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sidekick 2.00 1 2-1
10 10 Lupo’s Legacy 6.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Tim Tal 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 8 Goin to the Show 15.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Certain 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Real Naughty 4.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Kingmaker 8.00 8 15-1
2 2 Run for Reagan 15.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Mo Time At All 20.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Level Up 30.00 10.5 20-1
5 5 Power Alley 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Diamond Hands 1.40 1 2-1
14 14 Mytown Myrules 4.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Sweet Lady Ivanka 15.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Texas Shuffle 10.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Implosion 20.00 9.6 18-1
10 10 Colonel Aby B 30.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Quality Star 8.00 9.9 19-1
6 6 Precursory 15.00 11.2 21-1
1 1 Queen Judith 6.00 11.2 21-1
13 13 Beachfront Bid 6.00 11.8 22-1
12 12 Sweets Maker 30.00 12 23-1
8 8 Hashtag Winner 30.00 12.4 23-1
3 3 Sake (FR) 10.00 13.9 26-1
2 2 Eidikos (GB) 5.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Princess Cairo 15.00 1 2-1
1 1 Time to Race 10.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Call Me Toni 6.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Curl Girl 1.80 8.1 15-1
2 2 K’antheia 3.50 8.2 15-1
11 11 Queen of the Rodeo 8.00 9.1 17-1
3 3 Lexa 20.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Soultitlesready 15.00 10.6 20-1
8 8 Paleta 12.00 11 21-1
12 12 Destine to Race 30.00 11 21-1
5 5 I Had That One Too 30.00 11.7 22-1
7 7 Fearless Kristie 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Creative Minister 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Verbal 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Script 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Creed 3.50 2.4 4-1
15 15 Eyes On Target 15.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Strong Quality 4.50 4.8 9-1
11 11 Hidden Stash 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Hidden Enemy (IRE) 15.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 American Hero 30.00 10.5 20-1
6 6 Point Me By 10.00 10.9 21-1
4 4 Red Hornet 30.00 11 21-1
12 12 February Son 30.00 11.2 21-1
14 14 My Romeo Lima 20.00 11.5 22-1
13 13 Mutakatif (IRE) 30.00 14.7 28-1
10 10 Nautilus (BRZ) 20.00 15.8 30-1
2 2 Cowboy Justice (GB) 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Caballo Feliz 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Rounder 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Tuskegee Cat 12.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Mr. Bouma 4.50 7 13-1
6 6 River Boy 6.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Beocca 30.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Classic Mark 12.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Workinfromhome 20.00 10.3 19-1
9 9 Nordic Light 12.00 10.7 20-1
8 8 Writeitontheice 30.00 11.2 21-1
11 11 San Marco City 50.00 11.9 23-1
2 2 Lord Donegal 3.50 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.