Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cape Trafalgar 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Global Stage 1.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Sweet Cherry Pie 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Nasty Habit 15.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Redemption Time 4.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Iceatude 30.00 6 11-1
4 4 Brokenhearted 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Forever Cool 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Talkin Pharoah 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Insolito 15.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Rivoli 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Collect From Ike 3.50 4.2 8-1
12 12 Mask Patrol 4.50 4.5 8-1
10 10 Hey River 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 All Jokes Aside 20.00 5 9-1
1 1 St. Elmo 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Little Steven 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Northwind 10.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 With Purpose 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Bourbon Fever 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Margoinabubblebath 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Mean Sue 10.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Moon Magic Chrissy 12.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Frigid Lady 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Chasing After You 12.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Tell Me When 4.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Key to Success 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Blame It On Paris 20.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Miss Tappy Tone 8.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Golden Dagger 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Coach Petro 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Bon Bueno 2.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 Close Knit 12.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 He’s a Angel 6.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Hardmoneymuchachos 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Navy Cross 20.00 6.1 11-1
12 12 Texas Ted 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Electromagnetic 30.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Noble Connection 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Pace 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Emergency Response 8.00 9.5 18-1
5 5 Lucky’s Lane 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wonderfull Lady (FR) 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mademoisellejackie 4.50 4.2 8-1
13 13 Allamericanbeauty 4.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Mrs. Astor 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Knockyoursocksoff 4.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Malleymoo 3.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Safeen 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 C C Cruise Control 20.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Strikingly Spun 15.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 Around the Sun 30.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 Embrace Me 30.00 11.3 21-1
5 5 Essaouira 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Jenny Lind 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Clever Joke 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Be My Sunshine 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Venencia (FR) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Distinctlypossible 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Inventing 1.60 2.2 4-1
2 2 Beachfront Bid 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Mytown Myrules 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 She’s Keen 3.50 5.2 10-1
4 4 Academic Honor 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Fanduel Limestone S.) – Fanduel Limestone S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sassy Nature 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Love Reigns (IRE) 3.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Twirled 30.00 3 6-1
8 8 American Apple 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 My Sweet Affair 10.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Lady Hollywood (GB) 15.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Camp Akeela 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Accomplished Girl 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Alluring Angel (GB) 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Stone Silent 30.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Just a Care (IRE) 8.00 7 13-1
12 12 Danse Macabre 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Praise and Honor 0 0-1
2 2 Travel Column 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cheetara (CHI) 12.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Novel Squall 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Praise and Honor 20.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Richebourg 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Chi Town Lady 1.80 4.2 8-1
1 1 Be Like Water 30.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Secretly Wicked 30.00 7 13-1
3 3 My Destiny 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maker’s Mark Mile S.) – Maker’s Mark Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Up to the Mark 0 0-1
7 7 Modern Games (IRE) 0.60 1 2-1
3 3 Chez Pierre (FR) 12.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Dr Zempf (GB) 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Emmanuel 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Up to the Mark 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Cabo Spirit 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Speaking Scout 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 In Love (BRZ) 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Tshiebwe 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Fight’n Ready 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Bourbon Resolve 2.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Maddon 20.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Jor El 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Pursuit of Power 8.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 St. John’s 4.50 6.7 13-1
4 4 Im a Modest Man 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Earl of Dassel 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Mr McGregor 15.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Luna Vieja 30.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Southern Sunset 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Furious Anger 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Artwell 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.