Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 15, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Safalow’s Mission 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Conman 2.00 1.1 2-1
11 11 Braciole 2.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Sandrone 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Rough Draft 4.00 1.9 3-1
7 7 Feathers Road 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Be of Courage 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Great Workout 10.00 4 7-1
6 6 Sinful Dancer 15.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Clash A. J. 15.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Basis Risk 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Toxic Gray 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Looms Boldly 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Warman Road 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Heldish 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Thunderian 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Torrone 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Danger’s Hour S.) – Danger’s Hour S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bourbon Calling 0.50 1 2-1
3 3 Big Everest (GB) 0.80 1.1 2-1
5 5 Celestial City 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Anaconda 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Eleven Central 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Koolhaus 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 So High (GB) 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Patrick the Great 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bingo John 3.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Life and Light 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Sight Unseen 4.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Prince of Joy 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Hang Tight 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 One More Score 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Exxtop 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Carlin Clan 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Please Baby 4.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Yorkshire Prince 5.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Proven Hope 5.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Mad Magic 10.00 2.9 6-1
13 13 Peja Du 10.00 2.9 6-1
11 11 Chess Spectacular 12.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Stormandy 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Union Tap 15.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Steady Progress 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Elevated Causeway 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Second and Reed 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Carpe Capella 30.00 8.5 16-1
14 14 Wealllikedhim 50.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Raise the Rent 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Cash Now 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 No More Talk 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Zertz 5.00 2 4-1
5 5 Midnightcharly 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Marvin 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Magnificent Chrome 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 R Boy Bode 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Bon Adieu 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Inflationary Trend 3.00 1.4 3-1
11 11 Bomb Squad 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Orange Freeze 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Succulent 6.00 4 8-1
14 14 Silent Melody 8.00 5.7 11-1
15 15 My Angel 10.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 The Splendid One 10.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Ichiban 10.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Arisaema 12.00 9.1 17-1
4 4 Starts Now 12.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Northway 15.00 11.7 22-1
10 10 Kosuke 15.00 11.7 22-1
12 12 Pinstripepizzo 20.00 16 30-1
5 5 Gracefulness 20.00 16 30-1
9 9 La Conquistadora 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Win for Gold 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Nolo Contesto 5.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Zeebear 5.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Naked and Famous 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Super Quality 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Bourbon Ready 8.00 2.4 4-1
11 11 Blinding Light 8.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Motion to Strike 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Necromancer 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Built to Last 15.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Hatch 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Miss San Gabriel 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Accept the Outcome (IRE) 4.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Dekanter 5.00 1.5 3-1
1A 15 Butter Cake 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Spelterini 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Dark Dahlia 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Lexi’s Spirit 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Quiescent 10.00 3 6-1
13 13 Just On Time 12.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 She’s Stormy 15.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Risk Free 15.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Tufani 15.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Roman Goddess 15.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Diamond Status 20.00 6 11-1
12 12 My Girl Jal 50.00 15 28-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.