Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 15, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Oglethorpe 0 0-1
7 7 Magical Power 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Oglethorpe 1.80 1.6 3-1
4 4 Boone’s Path 12.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Braggadocious 12.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Trumptastic 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Artwell 20.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Covet 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Please Be Kind 1.60 1 2-1
10 10 Kate’s Concerto 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Zippin Pippin 3.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Dot Marie 20.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Bingo Star 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Itsablingthing 30.00 5 10-1
3 3 Midnight Grind 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Good Tohave Around 30.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Sinners Saints 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Speightsy Hot 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 West Coaster 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Merrily Rush 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Unified Decision 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Mutakatif (IRE) 0 0-1
13 13 Bless the Kitten 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Altazor (ARG) 20.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 Eyes On Target 8.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 James Aloysius 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Bullseye Bun 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 My Romeo Lima 15.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Portfolio Company 1.60 2.9 5-1
6 6 Easy Time 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Punch Hard 20.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Mutakatif (IRE) 50.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Vivar 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Common Bond 30.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 English Challenge 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Highestdistinction 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Implementation 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Inside Stunt 20.00 2 4-1
8 8 Courthouse Cove 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Wellman 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 C’Mon Man 3.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Magnolia Midnight 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Geaux Yoshka 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Pico d’Oro 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ready Pursuit 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Emperor’s Appeal 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 Baby Billy 10.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Really Good 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Desert Duke 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Escapologist 12.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Dark Side (IRE) 15.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 First Strike 20.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Classic Creation 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Myredwhiteandblue 4.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Clever Thought 3.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Three On the Tree 30.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Stonemont Reunion 50.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Our Dream Rye’d 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Battle of Normandy 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Sam Stormy 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ocean Pointe 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Watch This Birdie 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Pick Me Gurl 15.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Nursekringledances 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Scylla 2.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Hurry Up Hannah 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Oldest Sister 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Bold Ice 20.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Brenda 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 American Maestra 50.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Nikki M P 4.50 6.1 12-1
8 8 Miss Arlington 20.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Zeitlos 3.50 8.4 16-1
13 13 Corri Felice 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hidewright Away 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Magical Lute 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Principe d’Oro 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Tepeu 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Barber Road 2.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Crump 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Graphic Detail 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Husband Material 20.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Master Game 3.50 4.9 9-1
3 3 York Tavern 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Giant’s Causeway S.) – Giant’s Causeway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Twilight Gleaming (IRE) 4.50 1 2-1
12 12 Star Devine (IRE) 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Opening Buzz 15.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Oeuvre 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Happy Soul 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Train to Artemus 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Creative Credit 50.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Little Jewel 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Querobin Dourada 30.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Miner’s Queen 15.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Minaun (IRE) 30.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Mamba Wamba (IRE) 12.00 7.8 15-1
14 14 Sarah Harper 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Fast Giselle 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Amy C (GB) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stonestreet Lexington S.) – Stonestreet Lexington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
First Mission 0 0-1
First Mission 0 0-1
8 8 Empirestrikesfast 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Disarm 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 First Mission 3.00 2.4 4-1
11 11 Arabian Lion 3.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Prairie Hawk 15.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Demolition Duke 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Curly Larry and Mo 50.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Denington 20.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Reinvest 30.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Baseline Beater 20.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Transect 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Jenny Wiley S.) – Jenny Wiley S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 In Italian (GB) 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Queen Goddess 4.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 White Frost 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 With The Moonlight (IRE) 2.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Pizza Bianca 20.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Skims (GB) 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Henrietta Topham 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Freedom Speaks 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Speak of the Devil (FR) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ova Charged 15.00 1 2-1
12 12 Tarabi 2.00 3 6-1
4 4 Ironic Twist 15.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Muted 30.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Awesome Treat 8.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Your So Sillea 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Top Gun Girl 4.50 8.3 16-1
3 3 Radio Days 3.50 8.4 16-1
6 6 Current Climate 20.00 9.8 19-1
9 9 My Kentucky Girl 10.00 10 19-1
10 10 Street Jam 30.00 11.8 22-1
11 11 Napa Candy 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.