Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Makart 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Pot of Gold 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Boys Code 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 West Star 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Connect the Brocks 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Impulsive Spending 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Bear’s Correct 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Honey Money 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Movie Moxy 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Hot Fudge 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Pharoah’s Heart 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 I’m Buzzy 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Halo City 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Plenty Of Grace S.) – Plenty Of Grace S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Malavath (IRE) 0.60 1 2-1
7 7 Impazible Donna 1.80 1.2 2-1
6 6 Whitebeam (GB) 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Evvie Jets 5.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Runaway Rumour 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Spirit And Glory (IRE) 15.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Toned Up 50.00 7 13-1
Evvie Jets 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 I’mhavingamoment 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Fancy Joke 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Majestic Return 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Security Code 5.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Starry Midnight 8.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Lady Mine 15.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Joeybignose 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2B 11 Sharp Pippa 3.00 1 2-1
2 8 Yukon 3.00 1 2-1
8 7 Liana B 3.50 1.2 2-1
12 13 La Grotte 3.50 1.2 2-1
10 10 Wonder Girl 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 2 Solevo Spritz 6.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Tap It Up 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 5 Bella Cosa 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 1 Rum Runner Ready 10.00 4.4 8-1
11 12 Herecomes Scarlett 10.00 4.4 8-1
1A 14 Baby Sox 15.00 6.8 13-1
1 6 Aunt Berra 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 3 Becauseofthebrave 30.00 14 26-1
6 4 Graceful 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stage Raider 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Curlin’s Wisdom 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Market Alert 3.50 2 4-1
5 5 Unbridled Bomber 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Koolhaus 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Chestertown 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Salto de Tigre 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Mo Rewards 2.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Royal Spirit 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Bricco 3.50 1.7 3-1
12 12 Norgay 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Smoke and Heat 6.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Achilles Heel 6.00 2.9 5-1
14 14 Cumberland Blues 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Mach One 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Sell Something 12.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Kingfish Stevens 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Big Venezuela 15.00 7 13-1
5 5 Lord Gatling 20.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Strong Light 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gal in a Rush 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Palace Gossip 5.00 2.3 4-1
13 13 To a T 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Wings Like Eagles 5.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Happy Sophia 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Hey There 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Anna Karenine (FR) 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Runaway Rockette 8.00 4.8 9-1
15 15 Chasing Cara 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Lady Milagro 12.00 8.2 16-1
7 7 Fontanafredda 12.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Kitten’s Appeal 12.00 8.2 16-1
14 14 Champagne Poetry 15.00 10.8 20-1
1 1 Respectfully 20.00 15 28-1
11 11 Sister Bridget (IRE) 20.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 My Malibu Honey 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bustinroxy 3.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Ever Graceful 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Mrs Bell 6.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Georgie’s Ladies 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Tumbles 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Stormy’s in Style 15.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 La Chance 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Grace in Motion 20.00 10 19-1
4 4 Madame Rose 20.00 10 19-1
Tumbles 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.