Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 American Pure 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Ricochet 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Pure Panic 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Masai Man 15.00 6 11-1
7 7 Sea to Success 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Picasso 6.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Surf and Turf 12.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Beaver Hat 3.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kiss You Later (IRE) 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Elle Est Forte 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 I’m So Sorry 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Luminist 30.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Sinfiltre 3.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Cecilita 4.50 6.7 13-1
6 6 Livy B 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 In Lieu 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Dom Gervasio 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Kick Rocks Kid 8.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Hooey 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Shacklesfly 30.00 4 8-1
14 14 Hocus 12.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Chowmein 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Midway Miracle 30.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Silvestre 30.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Booyah 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Invasive 20.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Mo Snow 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Manchester 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Kvetching Maw 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Donegal Danny 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Bluegrass Lute 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Breeze Rider 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Gam’s Mission 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Bubble Rock 2.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Freedom Speaks 4.50 4.6 9-1
4 4 Henrietta Topham 4.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Lady Hideaway 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Peaceful Waters 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Under Oath 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Remuda 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Divine Leader 30.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Flint Ridge 3.50 6.2 12-1
2 2 Top of the Charts 8.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Fitzpatrick 5.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Embrace 10.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Minnesota Ready 8.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Let My People Go 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Brigade Commander 8.00 1 2-1
3 3 Magic Tap 3.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Saudi Crown 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Zed 5.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Malibu Springs 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Deliberation 15.00 5 10-1
4 4 Papa Alden 20.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Arno 30.00 6 11-1
10 10 Briterdayzahead 8.00 9.8 18-1
9 9 Wild Thinker 6.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Palisades S.) – Palisades S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Golden Nugget 0 0-1
5 5 Gaslight Dancer 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Bushido 5.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Crispy Cat (GB) 8.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Private Creed 4.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 No Nay Hudson (IRE) 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Two of a Kind 20.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Golden Nugget 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Storm Daddy 30.00 5.7 11-1
12 12 Damon’s Mound 6.00 5.8 11-1
13 13 Olazabal 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Fadethenoise 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Chiringo 20.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 New York Thunder 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Beaumont S. Presented By Keeneland Select) – Beaumont S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Key of Life 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Stonewall Star 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 She’s On the Rocks 10.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Opus Forty Two 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Interpolate 4.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Shoplifter 20.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Fun and Feisty 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Solid Tune 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Boudoir Burlesque 20.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Bel Aria 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Knowing Glance 1.20 4.5 8-1
2 2 Fabricate 10.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Super Cat Lady 6.00 6 11-1
5 5 Ma Cherie 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Lilly Chrome 50.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Lamasco 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.