Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Youalmosthadme 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Baraye 2.50 1.1 2-1
11 11 Late Nite Mistress 3.00 1.1 2-1
12 12 Sapphire Nights 4.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Krickle 8.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Gloriette 20.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Bingo’s Dream 20.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Aim Higher 30.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Prognosticate 30.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Foolish Front Fifi 30.00 1.9 3-1
14 14 Little Music 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Too Fast for You 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Old Fashioned Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Baytown Bama Girl 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Call of Honor 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Heirloom Kitten 8.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Hard Love 3.50 2.4 4-1
3 3 Panorama Truck 15.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Carom 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Cartier Cat 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Ottothelegend 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Icy Stare 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Gormleyesque 10.00 1.1 2-1
10 10 Kall Kat 8.00 1.5 3-1
13 13 Razzaluna 10.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 West Coaster 20.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Mahomebred 12.00 3 6-1
9 9 Get By 2.50 3.1 6-1
12 12 I’mherefortheparty 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Brylee 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Carmel Sunrise 30.00 4 7-1
8 8 Saint Sista 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Coexist 20.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Freeform 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Make the Boys Wink 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Fancy Caber Neigh 6.00 2 4-1
11 11 Luna Moth 20.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Okay Fine 20.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Paint Me Perfect 15.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Just Say So 4.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Masterful Meg 12.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Oh Suzanna 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Up and Down 3.50 5.8 11-1
1 1 Silent Story 30.00 6 11-1
5 5 Kentucky Reign 30.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Morethananyone 15.00 7.8 15-1
15 15 Dream Role 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Boltoro 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Mended We Stand 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Camelot Beauty (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Raymond 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Longshadow 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Invisible War 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Group Eighteen 10.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Sail At Sunrise 15.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 The Honorable One 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Zip It Scotty 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Hoya Paranoya 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Evan Harlan 1.80 1 2-1
9 9 Mount Rundle 8.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Foreign Relations 15.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Always Above 3.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Master of the Ring 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Silent Steve 50.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Bold Looker 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Wind Twist 20.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 El Ahijado 50.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Smokey Lee 30.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 C Falls 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Solid Country Gold 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lil Bro Coop 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Chileno 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Film Star 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Group Hug 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Royal King 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Princely 15.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Bright Spark 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Super Luxe 0 0-1
9 9 Reconsider Me (IRE) 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bel Rosso 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Flowerdew 4.50 5.4 10-1
8 8 Frontal Attack 3.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Stay Lost 15.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Kingmaking (GB) 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Callie’s Grit 6.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Work of Fiction 10.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Super Luxe 20.00 8.5 16-1
3 3 Lady Dynamo 8.00 9.1 17-1
12 12 Now Showing 30.00 11.7 22-1
16 16 Tactical Joke 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Shesasmalltowngirl 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Why Waste Words 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 After Eight 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Astrila 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.