Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 20, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Greatest Love 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Scott Alaia 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Twice Smitten 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Beautiful Karen 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Icy Reply 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Girl of Tosconova 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Keen Dancer 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Trade Secret 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Gringotts 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Glory Road 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Allaboutthemoney 4.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 American Gentleman 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Jalen Journey 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Trash Talker 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Risk Profile 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Striking Speed 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Bronx Bomber 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Chowda 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Runninsonofagun 0.80 1 2-1
2 1 Mr Phil 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 7 Big Engine 4.50 3 6-1
1 4 Synthesis 8.00 4.9 9-1
1A 6 Stage Left 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Wendell Fong 10.00 5.9 11-1
4 3 Tops the Chart 12.00 7 13-1
Wendell Fong 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Electorate (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Jet City Woman 3.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Nightsaber (GB) 5.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Kara Para 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Oak Loves a Fight 8.00 2 4-1
8 8 Welcometomyworld 8.00 2 4-1
2 2 Accel Rose 10.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Geometrique 12.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 My Inner Voice 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Shaymyname 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Salto de Tigre 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Long Term 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Mandatory 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Breadman 6.00 2 4-1
1 1 Norgay 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Achilles Heel 10.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Charlie Five O 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Winning Connection 15.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Son of an Ex 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 O’Trouble 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Ragtime Blues 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Victorious Wave 4.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Digital Future 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Leddy 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Motion to Strike 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Heir Port 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Gandy Dancing 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Caerus 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Winning Drive 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 12 Excellent Timing 1.00 1 2-1
1 3 Kawhi Me a River 2.00 1.8 3-1
1A 9 Flash Kiss 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 2 Sosua Summer 2.50 2.2 4-1
10 11 Dot’s Dollar 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Ikigai 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 1 After Five 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Elusive Edge 8.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Leonids 10.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Winter Son 12.00 9.6 18-1
9 10 Pressure 12.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Battuta d’Oro 15.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Barone Marchis 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Thomas S P 4.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 The Golden One 4.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Gentleman Burglar 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Eridromos 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Dakota’s Destiny 8.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Mr. Busta 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Pentangeli 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Iron Horizon 20.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Somama Beach 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.