Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 20, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 First Hill 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Dialherup 1.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Lady With a Cause 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 La Village Lumiere 12.00 3 6-1
4 4 Honor Hallaren 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 High End Vixen 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 American Rascal 1.20 1 2-1
15 15 Loudermilk 8.00 1.2 2-1
11 11 Legal Titan 20.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Frosty the Giant 8.00 1.3 2-1
13 13 Prints Money 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Family Factor 12.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Woodcourt 30.00 2 4-1
3 3 Innocent Man 30.00 2.1 4-1
16 16 Prince of Power 30.00 7 13-1
12 12 Chisparrajos 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kore Kinetic 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Baytown Chatterbox 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Cowes 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Wilson Q 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Commissioner Dan 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 No Way Carl 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Write Off Jerry 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Camilo 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Highest Rated (IRE) 15.00 2.2 4-1
12 12 American Only 20.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Quiet Ride 20.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 River in Egypt 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Now That Ican Rock 10.00 4 8-1
11 11 Berrettini 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Tiger’s Legacy 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Pearse 8.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Dubai And Back (IRE) 30.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Ocean City 6.00 8 15-1
13 13 Moesahandful 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Midnight Pranks 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Savage Kiss 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Desert Highway 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hoku 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Tap the Candy 6.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Jeeper 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Yono 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Ministerial 4.50 5.2 10-1
8 8 Sailor’s Return 15.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Coalminer’s Kitten 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Monkey Zone 30.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Harold’s Cloud 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Daring Do 2.50 1 2-1
15 15 Only Kidding 10.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Hideki 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Mornin’ Boss 30.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Stella Teresa 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lost My Sock 4.00 4.8 9-1
12 12 Funny Money Honey (IRE) 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Peach Cobbler 3.50 7.3 14-1
2 2 Cuzzywuzzy 8.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Massard 20.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Retail Therapist 20.00 9.9 19-1
10 10 Code for Success 20.00 10.2 19-1
13 13 Manorelli 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Vinegar Veggies 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Whatchamacall 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Georgees Spirit 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nifty 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Tilted Towers 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Summer Splash 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Devil’s Tower 1.40 3.2 6-1
1 1 Blue Kentucky 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 One Last Hand 30.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 My Man Flintstone 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Hooperdrivesthboat 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dominican Pioneer 12.00 1 2-1
2 2 Kupuna 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Kittansett 10.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Royal Patronage (FR) 4.50 3.9 7-1
12 12 Two Birds 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Fenwick Station 8.00 5 9-1
13 13 Jungle Warfare 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Hot Blooded 30.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Tiberius Mercurius 10.00 7 13-1
5 5 Ready to Purrform 6.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Commandeer 30.00 8.9 17-1
14 14 Vintage Print 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Burning Bright 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 El Kabong 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Big Blue Line 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Good Governance (GB) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Vittorio 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Time for Trouble 20.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Spa City 8.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 War Campaign 4.50 2.9 5-1
7 7 Creative Minister 15.00 3 6-1
6 6 Cooke Creek 3.50 5 9-1
3 3 Coastal Defense 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Curbstone 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Just So 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Sherlock’s Jewel 12.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Anchor Manne 20.00 2 4-1
6 6 Royal Sandrin 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Balthazar 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 St. Neots 10.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Gold Franc (IRE) 20.00 4 8-1
13 13 Quality Art 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Sig 30.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Forge in Fire 15.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Cyber Ninja 2.50 6.3 12-1
12 12 Joint Venture 30.00 7.5 14-1
16 16 Chloe’s Dream 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Shamanic 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Composer’s Dream 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Roenick 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.