Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 D Hopper 1.00 1 2-1
5 5 Phelpsy 3.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Venge 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Majestic Michael 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Finn’s Moment 8.00 6 11-1
2 2 Alternate Reality 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 5 Yukata (IRE) 0.60 1 2-1
1 2 Arina (GER) 0.60 1 2-1
8 9 Honey Money 1.80 1.6 3-1
9 10 Movie Moxy 2.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Canisy 2.50 1.9 4-1
7 8 Dancing Sophia 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 1 Bramble Bay 5.00 3 6-1
5 6 Wonka 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 7 Impazible Donna 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Toned Up 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Excellent Timing 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Rotknee 1.60 1.1 2-1
3 3 Kaz’s Beach 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Dot’s Dollar 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Pressure 12.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Bezos 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Magical Ways 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Global Image 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Peja Du 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Steady Progress 8.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Financial Strength 8.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Succeed 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Golden Purchase 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Spiked 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Know It All Audrey 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Liam’s Kiss 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Suspended Campaign 6.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Anatolian 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Into Happiness 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Vegas Weekend 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Refuah 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Rule Breaker 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 I’m Just 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Meteorite 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Inspector 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Wanna Winna 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Battleoflexington 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Unaffected 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dontmesswithtess 1.40 1 2-1
10 10 She Caught My Eye 1.80 1.1 2-1
1 1 Union Dolly 2.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Bella Principessa 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Up Her Sleeve 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Lady of Thoroton 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Brisky Frolic 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 From Hello 20.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 R Girl Faith 30.00 10 19-1
2 2 Game Theory 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Stone Creator 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Sweet Mystery 3.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Bavarian Creme 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Mia Bea Star 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Happy Sophia 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Khali Magic 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Thinking It Over 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Amity Island 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Little Skippy 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Old Point 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Don’t Let Me Down 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Nieuwendyk 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Father of Lies 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Leo Fong 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Brass Monkey 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Shakin the Belle 8.00 3.2 6-1
12 12 Pine Alley 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Sway’sinmydna 15.00 6 11-1
10 10 Wealllikedhim 30.00 12 23-1
8 8 Anointed Spirit 30.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.