Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 P H Factor 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Test Pilot 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 My Bariley 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Tapage 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Current 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Shadrack 1.40 SCRATCH
1 1 Code Runner 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Magnificus 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Patrolman 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Presider 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Apollo Rising 12.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 My Spirit 20.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Barrelhouse 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Rush Center 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Desert Highway 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Lazarus 10.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Boco 30.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Kansas Comet 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ravella 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Jump Into the Fire 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Royal Take Charge 2.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Jungle Juice (IRE) 10.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Illiogami 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Autism Community 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Magic Palace 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Forever After All 3.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Bedtime for Buffy 30.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Loved 2.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Texas Melody 20.00 4 8-1
5 5 Her Ladyship 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 Awesome Ally Vee 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Salsalita Verde 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 High Front 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Charging Aero 12.00 2.6 5-1
14 14 Foliage 12.00 3.3 6-1
13 13 Red Hot Rod 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Jura 30.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Detroit City 15.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Gregory’s Pride 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Cadamosto (IRE) 3.50 5.4 10-1
12 12 Apache Tears 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 B D Valeski 20.00 8.2 15-1
6 6 Trust Daddy 6.00 8.2 16-1
11 11 Khafre 30.00 10.3 19-1
15 15 On K P 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Arabian Prince 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 King of Song 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 True Jedi 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Morning Cup 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Supremely 8.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Appeal Denied 2.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Schmoozin 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Keen On You 30.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Stand for Freedom 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 American Icon 20.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Counterstrike 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Shesasmalltowngirl 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Hidewright Away 20.00 1 2-1
3 3 Under Advisement 10.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Sassy Walker 10.00 2.3 4-1
11 11 Sister Woman 12.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Delaney’s Grace 30.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Corri Felice 30.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Magical Lute 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Check Engine Light 4.50 5.5 10-1
2 2 Truly Grateful 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Coppa Girl 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Juncture (GB) 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Viareggio (IRE) 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Fast as Flight 2.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Bipartisanship (GB) 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Valentina Day 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Trail Ridge Road 15.00 5.3 10-1
10 10 Arm Candy 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Justify My Love (BRZ) 8.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Trobairitz 20.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Lil Kings Princess 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Fancy Martini 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Baird Doubledogdare S.) – Baird Doubledogdare S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Interstatedaydream 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Green Up 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Frost Point 12.00 3 6-1
7 7 Hidden Connection 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Traverse 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Shotgun Hottie 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Moon Swag 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Music Street 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Battle of Normandy 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Twowaycrossing 12.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Reckoning Force 4.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Read On 8.00 3 6-1
3 3 Sam Stormy 20.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Ironsides 30.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Moon Cat 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Roja Redemption 20.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Our Dream Rye’d 6.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 McMoney 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Ocean Pointe 4.50 7.9 15-1
12 12 Winters Lion 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.