Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 22, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Why Behave 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 She’s Gone d’Wild 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 8 Risata 20.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Lucy’s Lookin Left 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Holdontoyourtiara 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 High Speed 2.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 My Dark Secret 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Yogurt 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Deck of Cards 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Hashtag Winner 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Ghostly Girl 2.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 La Tourista 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Legerity 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 The Club 1.60 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Off the Cuff 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lone Leader 20.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Battle Born 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Kislovodsk 3.50 3.5 7-1
12 12 Hail Allen 30.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Kvetching Maw 20.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Lucky Smile 10.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Washington’s Union 30.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Bluegrass Lute 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Big Popper 4.50 7.9 15-1
6 6 Couth 10.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Cote d’Ivoire 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mister Kitty 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Schmear 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Shortly 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Market Analysis 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Legal Deal 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Gun It 3.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Pole Setter 30.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Silk Trade 1.80 4.6 9-1
6 6 Greener Pastures 12.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Newbomb 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Myriskyaffair 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Mise En Scene (GB) 1.40 1.3 3-1
4 4 Lovely Princess 4.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Beechnut Trophy 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Kathaan 20.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Ready Lady 20.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 She’s Gone 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Miss Marie 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Cigarette Boat 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Billy Jack 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Class Actor 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Mr. Keating 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Moreau 8.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Tarhe 30.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Five Star G Man 20.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Solevo 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Cartographer 20.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 De la Calles 15.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Gilded Craken 20.00 3.9 7-1
12 12 Fast Forward 50.00 7.5 14-1
13 13 Saturday Long Legs 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Socially Selective 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Aunt Becca 15.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Froshado 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Devious Stares 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Charlee Mae 30.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Unsung Melody 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Zapple 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Elkhorn S.) – Elkhorn S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Highest Honors 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Channel Maker 4.50 1.2 2-1
9 9 Verstappen 20.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Value Engineering 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Rising Empire 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Red Knight 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Howe Street 10.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Another Mystery 15.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Tiz the Bomb 30.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Shawdyshawdyshawdy 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Ben Ali S.) – Ben Ali S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Skippylongstocking 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Pioneer of Medina 3.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Rattle N Roll 3.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Tawny Port 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Call Me Fast 20.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Happy American 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Trademark 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Beer Can Man 5.00 1 2-1
7 7 Angaston 10.00 1.5 3-1
11 11 Nobody Listens 8.00 2 4-1
8 8 Mark of the Z 8.00 2 4-1
10 10 Just Might 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Ice Chocolat (BRZ) 12.00 5.6 10-1
6 6 Nobals 8.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Smokin’ Jay 4.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 City Drifter 20.00 8.5 16-1
12 12 Dowagiac Chief 30.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Front Run the Fed 15.00 9 17-1
9 9 Johnny Unleashed 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Spicy Marg 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Gallant Guy 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Friar Laurence 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Our Shot 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.