Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 23, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fieldstone 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 He’s Got This 0.00 2 4-1
5 5 King’s Ovation 0.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Mr. Peterkin 0.00 3 6-1
7 7 Drop Anchor 0.00 3 6-1
2 2 Rogue Element 0.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Job Security 0.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cowichan (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Snow Princess 0.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Point Well Taken 0.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Hartful Hope 0.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 All I Want Is You 0.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Glamour Anna 0.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Sandra D 0.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Agent 0.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Little Hot Mess 0.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Rapunzels Song 0.00 5.4 10-1
12 12 Secret Money 0.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 L J’s Emma 0.00 6.9 13-1
16 16 Runaway Willie 0.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Calm Cool 0.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Anna’s Arabesque 0.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lemon Bomb 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Klimt’s Muse 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Keen Lady 0.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Commandandcontrol 0.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Center Stage 0.00 2 4-1
3 3 Lucy’s Cakes Fly 0.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Dooit 0.00 3 6-1
8 8 Honorifique 0.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Treasure of War 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bear Oak 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Uninvited Guest 0.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Mobster Gun 0.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Background 0.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Order and Law 0.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Olliemyboy 0.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Present Moment (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Fast and Flirty 0.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Tequilera 0.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 French Cuffs 0.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 For the Flag 0.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Breaker of Chains 0.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Lakota Spirit 0.00 7 13-1
11 11 Pioneer’s Edge 0.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Do You Love Me 0.00 8 15-1
9 9 Quiero Mas 0.00 8.2 16-1
6 6 Lilac Girl 0.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Mint Edition 0.00 9.3 18-1
7 7 Helens Well (IRE) 0.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Sake (FR) 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Jubilant Joanie 0.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Strong Profile 0.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Midnight Favorite 0.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Teshima 0.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Save Your Tears 0.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Melinoe 0.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Speightsy Hot 0.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Paddy Gal 0.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Little Dixie 0.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Allinthecall 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Alex Joon 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Buy Me Candy 0.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Limited Liability 0.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Bakwena 0.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Highestdistinction 0.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Encourage 0.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Ready for the Lady 0.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tumbarumba 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 King’s Glory 0.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Scotland 0.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 B Minor 0.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Spurs Up 0.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Rosy Tomorrows 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Boltoro 0.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Golden Runner 0.00 4 8-1
11 11 Mended We Stand 0.00 5 9-1
6 6 Summertime Rose 0.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Mischievous Gal 0.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Freydis the Red (FR) 0.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Time to Race 0.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Royal Blood 0.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Astrila 0.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Red Jag 0.00 9.8 18-1
2 2 After Eight 0.00 10.1 19-1
16 16 The Archangel 0.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tactical Joke 0.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bag Lady 0.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Penumbras Maker 0.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.