Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kore Kinetic 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Blue Eyed Soul (IRE) 1.40 1.2 2-1
7 7 Imperial Thunder 10.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Saddle Up 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Dunphy 12.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Gewurztraminer 20.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Express Cruiser 20.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Commissioner Dan 30.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Boy Por Uno 20.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Nurcan 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Monet Never (IRE) 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Charging 2.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Liquid Addiction (IRE) 8.00 2.4 4-1
9 9 McGolden 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Ev’s Sherman 50.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Say It Loud 12.00 4.6 9-1
16 16 Beer Run 4.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Alibi Ike 6.00 5 9-1
1 1 One for My Brother 30.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Devils Red 20.00 8 15-1
7 7 Little Man Can 30.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Home Run Hank 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Forcible Entry 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Saturday Long Legs 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Eternal Bliss 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Brazilian Fury 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Madison Luvs Duke 0 0-1
5 5 High Heater 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Miacomet 4.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Madison Luvs Duke 8.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Wolfe County 2.00 2 4-1
2 2 Idratherbeblessed 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Lemonadeatthelatch 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Deputy Connect 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Catnip 0 0-1
9 9 Catnip 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Reward Night 6.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Rally Squirrel 20.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Exact Estimate 1.40 2.9 6-1
2 2 Gamer 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Policy Option 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Juulstone 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Arabian Prince 20.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 O P Firecracker 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Baj 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Just an Opinion 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Brightwork 8.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Unmatched 8.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Barbtourage 0.80 1.4 3-1
7 7 Crimson Advocate 15.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Whatta World 30.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Titania’s Dream 30.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Argan 20.00 2.1 4-1
14 14 Little Music 20.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Bandit Queen 30.00 2.2 4-1
12 12 Stairstep Toheaven 30.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Bootsy’s Merlot 30.00 5 9-1
13 13 Green Chile 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Boyne Valley 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bound for Nowhere 0.40 1 2-1
1 1 Divine Leader 20.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Infinite 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Johnny Unleashed 30.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Our Shot 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Purple Dream 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Nero 8.00 6 11-1
8 8 Gallant Guy 30.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Friar Laurence 20.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 He’smyhoneybadger 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dog Red 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 One Giant Leap 1.20 1.9 4-1
4 4 Libertango 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Vassar’s Boy 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Gold Luck 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Seven Flat 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bravo Kitten 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Broadway Boogie 1.80 2.3 4-1
5 5 Light Stars (FR) 4.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Flatter Me Silly 15.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Shad Nation 15.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Miss Yearwood 4.50 3.5 7-1
4 4 Lady Arsinoe 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Federalist Papers 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ya Beauty (GB) 50.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.