Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 27, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Sanura 1.80 1 2-1
8 8 Bustin Bay 2.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Whatlovelookslike 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 3 New Ginya 3.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 B B’s Busted 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Home for Christmas 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Silken Dollar 8.00 3 6-1
1A 10 Dufresne 10.00 3.6 7-1
1 4 Howdyoumakeurmoney 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 1 Curly Girl 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Afilada 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Amanda’s Folly 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 In Traffic 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Bravo Regina 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Handle the Truth 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Tekila 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Joey the Fish 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Wicked Lady 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Love Appeals 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Sweetlou’sgotaces 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Georgees Spirit 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Senior Prank 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Fabulously Funny 6.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Fancy Azteca 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Chasing After You 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 10 Be Up 1.80 1 2-1
12 13 Chaysenbryn 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 5 Linny Kate 3.50 1.7 3-1
1A 4 Big Cheeks 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 3 Erin’s Enthusiasm 4.50 2.2 4-1
11 12 Caramocha 5.00 2.4 4-1
10 11 Gagliano 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Girl’s On Fire 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 8 Forty Smooth 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 1 Mariah’s Fortune 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 7 More Mango 12.00 5.3 10-1
8 9 Proper Grammar 30.00 13 25-1
5 6 Keen Dancer 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Freudmein 3.50 1 2-1
11 12 Fayette Joker 4.00 1.4 3-1
12 13 Prix de West 5.00 2.1 4-1
8 9 Golden Arm 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 11 Pop Coyer 10.00 5.7 11-1
9 10 Ormstown 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 5 On the Ledge 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 4 Nightmare Moon 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 2 Seize the City 15.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Woodside Warrior 15.00 9.4 18-1
1 6 Storm the Empire 20.00 13 25-1
4 3 Russi 20.00 13 25-1
1A 8 Under the Knife 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 9 Twenty Four Mamba 2.00 1 2-1
1 4 Jake Rocks 2.00 1 2-1
2 6 Glory Road 2.50 1.2 2-1
2B 8 Lastchanceatglory 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 3 Milton the Monster 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 Nuclear Option 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Thinkaboutit 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 1 Lafitte’s Fleet 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 11 Russian to Win 12.00 4.6 9-1
4 2 Lost in Rome 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 10 Charlie Five O 30.00 11 21-1
Milton the Monster 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Scilly Cay 1.80 1 2-1
8 8 Vacation Dance 2.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Frank’s Art 3.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Brew Pub 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Yarrow 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Battle Station 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Ghost Giant 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Runningwscissors 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Me ‘n Sap 15.00 10 19-1
7 7 Bar Fourteen 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Paros 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Parkerness 5.00 2 4-1
9 9 Rol Again Dancer 6.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Thunderian 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Mama’s Gold 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 Bobby the Tank 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Winning Connection 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Dreaming of Smarty 12.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Playingwithmatches 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Going in Style 20.00 12 23-1
7 7 Sorpreso 20.00 12 23-1
4 4 American Grant 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.