Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 27, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kasimba 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Manchester 1.60 1.1 2-1
5 5 Hyper Speed 4.50 1.3 3-1
4 4 Valuable Cargo 10.00 2 4-1
7 7 Platinum Ghost 30.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Level Up 4.00 4 7-1
1 1 Giant Awakening 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 All Jokes Aside 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Fandom (GB) 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Calhoun 6.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Blast Furnace 8.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Keepyourpranceon 10.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Saint Rocco 20.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Laugh Now 30.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Early Munny 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 The Rush Is On 30.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Candymaker 1.60 SCRATCH
6 6 Ore Mine 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Patience Worth 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Union Harmony 5.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Fast N Happy 15.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Blue Topaz 4.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Milieu 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Arden’s Assault 1.60 2.7 5-1
5 5 Mo Town Mayhem 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Sweet Beauty 0 0-1
2 2 Cami Cat 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sweet Beauty 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Social Mandate 12.00 3.2 6-1
11 11 Puglia 20.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Spiritcatcher 15.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Pappysaysyes 30.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Xtrasaucewelldone 50.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Economic Hangover 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sonnyneedsmoney 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 You’re Avoiding Me 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fast Gal 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wicked Fast 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 The Grey Wizard (IRE) 1.40 1.6 3-1
6 6 Six Minus 8.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Microphone (IRE) 20.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Sir for Sure 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Kitten Mischief 12.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 English Conqueror 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Cool Rags 30.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Blanket of Roses 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
De Joria 0 0-1
8 8 De Joria 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Yo Puedo 8.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Pout 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Pentagon 1.80 4 8-1
7 7 Lily’s Creed 20.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Byzantine 15.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Silverleaf 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 She’s All Class 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Miss Riddler 0 0-1
3 3 Venencia (FR) 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Be My Sunshine 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Tammy Tap Tap Tap 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Miss Peabody 20.00 7.1 13-1
14 14 Chica de Oro 30.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Desert Tempest 10.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Gromantine (FR) 6.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Miss Riddler 10.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Cloudy Bay 20.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Sweet Alyssa 20.00 9.4 18-1
11 11 Puffin 30.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Boudica 8.00 10.4 20-1
15 15 Need Some Money 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mo Shiro 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Jenny Lind 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Silver Stripes 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Send for Me 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Ain’t Broke 8.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Tales of Home 6.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Non Violence 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Braganza 2.50 4 8-1
2 2 Story Hour 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Take Care 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Monjid 15.00 1 2-1
10 10 Missionaire 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 King Curlin 10.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Son of Thunder 20.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Miracle On Ice 20.00 4 8-1
8 8 Bee Well 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Roenick 50.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Caroom 12.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Qaader 50.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Border War 3.50 8.8 17-1
1 1 Gettleman 4.50 9.5 18-1
6 6 Dr Kringle 6.00 10.3 19-1
16 16 Self Rule 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Boone’s Path 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hidden Path 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Peek 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.