Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, April 28, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tituba 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Huntleigh 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Flamand 15.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Pachanga Loca 3.50 4.6 9-1
1 1 Chiquita Mosca 20.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Need Some Money 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Beautiful and Bold 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bundchen 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Liam’s Message 8.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Donate Life 6.00 1.2 2-1
14 14 Tito’s N Kenz 8.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Yellow Sun Dress 15.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 American Tsunami 12.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Anoria 30.00 2 4-1
3 3 Fifth Circuit 30.00 2 4-1
13 13 Intermittent Fast 30.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Next Dot 30.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Piangere 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hollywoodboulevard 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Beyond Oscar 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 She a Baddie 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mombayla 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Chitarra (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Viewers Discretion 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Impeccable Taste 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Dee Dee B 2.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Agenda 30.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Prana 20.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Catherine Blaze 4.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Lil Bit of Capitol 30.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Replenish 8.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Caughtinmyweb 50.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Jackie’s Love 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ardanwood 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Flute Master 4.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Oddsontony 10.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Code Violation 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Mayfield Strong 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Malibu Mike 1.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Freeze Pop 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
We the People 0 0-1
4 4 Hero Status 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 We the People 0.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Britain’s Kitten 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Business Model 3.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 The Reds 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Dash Attack 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Such Sounds 0 0-1
Ragtime Belle 0 0-1
8 8 Sahlabiya 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Penumbras Maker 6.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Pure Country 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Such Sounds 20.00 4 8-1
12 12 Tawaret 3.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Determined Gold 20.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Izabellabella 50.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Chiromante (IRE) 10.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Ragtime Belle 20.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Seldom Seen 8.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Camelot Beauty (IRE) 15.00 10.7 20-1
15 15 Proud Performer 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Aleatory 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dixie Supreme 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Vagaries (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Sri Lanka 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mo Hope 20.00 1 2-1
3 3 Castlewarden 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Run for Reagan 15.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Runningforjoy 20.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Ghent Road 15.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Pilote Comete 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Loyal Company 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Dark Vector 6.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Surface to Air 15.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 King of Kentucky 30.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Bad Boy Frank 4.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Gold Ghost 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Demetrius 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Citizen 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Bewitch S.) – Bewitch S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 War Like Goddess 0.60 1 2-1
5 5 Personal Best 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Temple City Terror 4.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Ensemble (IRE) 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Chaton Rouge 50.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Sopran Basilea (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 A La Carte 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Bourbon Heist 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Debate 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Overbore 3.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 War Room 30.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 O P Firecracker 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Triple Elvis 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Good Heart 15.00 1 2-1
9 9 Itzos 20.00 3 6-1
3 3 Turf King (IRE) 2.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Midnight Rising 10.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Dunedin 5.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Spy Novel 20.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Wico (IRE) 3.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Movisitor 30.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Laver 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Moonstrike (GB) 50.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 More Than Looks 10.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Tiger Paw (IRE) 30.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Fearless Soldier 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.