Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 29, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 New York Dreams (GB) 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Never Seen Before (IRE) 3.00 4 8-1
3 3 Brother Reid 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Birth of Cool 2.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Zookeeper 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 American Cat 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Fireman Dan 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Mastermind 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Conquest Celsius 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Fiamina 2.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Borntostaythirsty 4.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Stealthespotlight 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Cat On the Run 10.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Charlize Patron 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Providencia S.) – Providencia S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Broadway Girls 0 0-1
4 4 Ancient Peace 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Broadway Girls 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Paris Secret (IRE) 2.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Pleasant Wave 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Una Palabra 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Miss Lizzy 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fly a Fantasy 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Seldovia 2.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Recalcitrant 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Cocktail Cutie 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Graceful Scarlett 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Dance Ella Dance 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Holiday Arousal 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Enjoy It Strait 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Lil Richards Bello 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Minister Shane 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Mr. T’s Thirsty 6.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Hapi Hapi 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Devil Moon 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Habeas 2.50 1.3 2-1
11 11 Storming Chrome 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Jimmy the Boot 6.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Sai Con (FR) 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Stop and a Tres 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 El Oro (FR) 5.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Chirag 5.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Cupid’s Crusader 30.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Mega Moon 15.00 10.1 19-1
2 2 Agapetos 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bluegrass Go Go 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Irondale 5.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Tenth Street Don 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Anticipated 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Trusty Rusty 8.00 6 11-1
7 7 Notforlackofeffort 8.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Prayforourcountry 6.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Pars and Birdies 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Oncoming 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 El Potente 2.50 1.2 2-1
9 9 Flint Stroll 3.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 Post Facto 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Club Aspen 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Explain This Audit 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Bender 8.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Rosenquist 12.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Halfbarberbingie 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Santa Maria S.) – Santa Maria S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Adare Manor 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Big Switch 2.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Kirstenbosch 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Bellamore 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Smoothlikebuttah 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Mongolian Panther 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Seismic Spirit (IRE) 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Virat 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Really Big News 5.00 6 11-1
2 2 Tigerhon (FR) 10.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Greenbow 5.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Mischievous Path 20.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Naismith 8.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Book Smart 5.00 8 15-1
5 5 The Bullion Bomber (IRE) 12.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Relaxed Artist (IRE) 12.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bold Choice 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Danzing Cat 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Whimsical Heir 2.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Smiling Amy 12.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 C Her Beauty 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Flymetothemoonbaby 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Ryder’s Candy 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Carmen Miranda 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ultimate Hy 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Shocking Grey 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Lucky for You 6.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Denim in Gold 12.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Speed Lane 8.00 7 13-1
12 12 Lady Jae 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Red Diamond 15.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Corporal Violette (IRE) 6.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Ma France (IRE) 5.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Nu Pi Lambda 20.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Not Now 15.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.