Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 30, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wildhawk 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Risk Free 2.50 2 4-1
3 3 Ms. Solveig 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Last Glimmer 4.00 5 9-1
4 4 Punkin 4.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Heymackit’sjack 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 Eight and Sand 2.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Spettro 3.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Volkert 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Upper Level 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Ignited 6.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Clash A. J. 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Run Smitty Run 15.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Moon Hunter 15.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Basis Risk 30.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Raw Courage 50.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Gifted 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Financial Advice (FR) 2.50 1.5 3-1
12 12 Ocean Gateway 3.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Prerequisite 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Pret a Toucher 5.00 2.5 5-1
11 11 Libretto (IRE) 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Treasured Gem 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Kayleigh’s Pride 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Meow Meow Hiss 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Volatility 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 River Oaks 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Keep It Sexy 30.00 13 25-1
4 4 Tooshay 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Princess Sonya 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Irish Jackson 2.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 La Chance 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Wine Goddess 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Mrs Bell 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 My Gorgeous 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Akiva 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Majority Partner 1.00 1 2-1
9 9 Celestial Moon 2.00 1.3 3-1
4 4 Never Explain 2.00 1.3 3-1
6 6 Call Me Harry 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Space Launch 3.50 1.9 4-1
11 11 Kinetic Sky 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Daunt 4.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Chulainn 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Clear Vision 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Twenty Four Mamba 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Royal Tryst 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 4 Beaute Cachee (FR) 0.60 1 2-1
1X 11 Suspended Campaign 0.60 1 2-1
1A 7 Chili Flag (FR) 0.60 1 2-1
8 9 Know It All Audrey 1.60 1.7 3-1
2 1 Frivole (FR) 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 8 Desert Dalliance 3.00 2.7 5-1
9 10 To a T 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Lay the Groundwork 8.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Ever Summer 8.00 6.1 12-1
4 3 Now Yus Cant Leave 12.00 8.9 17-1
3 2 Except Temptation 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 98 Battle Station 0.00 1 2-1
6 5 Unique Unions 1.40 1.8 3-1
4 3 Thrill of It 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Scilly Cay 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Brew Pub 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Foolish Ghost 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 First Deputy 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Affirmed Success S.) – Affirmed Success S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Today’s Flavor 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Sheriff Bianco 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Listentoyourheart 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Amundson 4.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 My Boy Tate 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Lobsta 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Scocciatore 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nolo Contesto 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Majestic Tiger 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Always Charming 4.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Inspeightoftrainer 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Big Venezuela 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Mach One 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Skylander 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Son of an Ex 15.00 8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.