Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, May 2, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Girls House 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Gormleyesque 1.60 1.1 2-1
6 6 Recite 15.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Kentucky Reign 8.00 3 6-1
7 7 Start Class 30.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dogwoodsmilliejane 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Toto’srubyslippers 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Luna Moth 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Rudimentary Drink 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Lotsandlotsofgold 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Party At Grants 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Golden View 3.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Embraceable 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Promisemeparadise 5.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Plus Power 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Musicmansandy 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Acaciahelpme 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Bourbonwithginger 15.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Electric Sense 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Jackie Flash 4.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Sonador 4.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Domitia Lucilla 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Beach Kitten 15.00 1 2-1
2 2 Tap the Line 15.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 More Romance 6.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Ramadhaan (IRE) 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 I’mherefortheparty 2.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Fast Gal 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Wilmore 20.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Dre Me Less 4.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 A Little Bit Crazy 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Joyful Applause 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Breaker of Chains 10.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Fuente Ovejuna (GB) 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Mo Shiro 15.00 4 7-1
9 9 Helens Well (IRE) 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Eidikos (GB) 3.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Take Charge Briana 5.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Je Suis Rapide 30.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Academic Honor 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Sake (FR) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Music Amore 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Neversaynoletsgo 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Waters of Merom 12.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Addison 15.00 3 6-1
4 4 Sacred Beauty 2.00 3 6-1
8 8 She’s Gone d’Wild 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Zawadi 20.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Princess Nina 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Miss Arlington 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Giada 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Generous Lover 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Birdie Rose 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Little Prankster 6.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Sacred Circle 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Sweet Azteca 8.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Happy Am I 6.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Mamba Out 15.00 8 15-1
3 3 Princess Pom Pom 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Charcoal 0 0-1
2 2 Chasing Artie 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Agent Peter Graves 3.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Thanks Mr. Eidson 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Mister Mmmmm 4.00 2.6 5-1
15 15 Charcoal 15.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Coppola 10.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 All in Sync 12.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Willtorun 10.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Diamond City 30.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Kadri 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Santos Dumont 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mamba On Three 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 On Your Mark 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Ian Glass 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 He’smyhoneybadger 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sutherland 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Route Runner 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tshiebwe 3.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Mount Craig 8.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Game Warden 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Prove Worthy 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Atlantic Dancer 15.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Game Keeper 15.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Braggadocious 4.50 4.8 9-1
8 8 Hero’s Medal 20.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.