Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Allege 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Silver Dust 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Locally Owned 1.40 2.3 4-1
1 1 Current 10.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Kissalot 4.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Code Runner 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Beaudacious Colton 0 0-1
8 8 Sonofaship 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 Let’s Go Mark 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Loudermilk 6.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Beaudacious Colton 10.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Prince of Power 15.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Vitement 10.00 2 4-1
4 4 Favoritism 15.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Mi Oscuro Secreto 20.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Suga Steve 12.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Laugh Now 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lil Anthony 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Co Conspirator 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Herd Immunity 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 My Redemption 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Go for Sherrie 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Blueberry 5.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 That Khenny 2.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Bajan Rum 12.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Peekacho 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Heckled 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 Best Performer 15.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Holy Foley 10.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Super Cool Storm 20.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Blessing the Flag 10.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 What’s to Do 12.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Gloria’s Princess 2.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Wardeya 3.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Pat’schromecompass 20.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Le Levre (IRE) 12.00 6.8 13-1
13 13 Empathy 12.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Aunt Nelda 10.00 8.5 16-1
16 16 Sweet Trouble 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Starters Orders 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 La Voie 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mystic Pleasure 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Towing 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Got the Bob 15.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Multi Platinum 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lemon Drop Shot 3.00 4 7-1
2 2 Roan for the Rose 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Loot the Moon 8.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Swiss Guard 5.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Master Lea 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Bronze Beast 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Charley Rude 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Azul Tequila 12.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Ms Hayley 20.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Magna Massa 20.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Proud Foot 8.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Twirling Patti 4.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Elle of the Ball 3.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Big Java 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Ball Gown 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Kilmorey 15.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Queen Tapiture 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Zippin Gigi 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Spartan Army 8.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Greys the Boy 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Bad to the Bones 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Patient Capital 2.50 5 9-1
3 3 Angkor 3.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Tim Tal 6.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 American Icon 50.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S.) – Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lone Rock 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Next 1.60 1.6 3-1
6 6 Warrant 10.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Red Run 12.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Calibrate 12.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Decision Maker 15.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Scarlet Fusion 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Mamzelle Overnight S.) – Mamzelle Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Danse Macabre 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sassy Nature 8.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 American Apple 20.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 B G Warrior 15.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Lady Hollywood (GB) 2.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Shootoutthelights 2.50 5.2 10-1
9 9 My Sweet Affair 6.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Peacock Lass 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Anna’s Arabesque 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Accomplished Girl 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rivoli 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Rate Confirmation 6.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Brokenhearted 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Forever Cool 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Golden Reign 20.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Power Alley 6.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Moonovermontgomery 20.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Air Kenney 12.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Eddie M 8.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Papa D L 20.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Officer Quigley 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 When I Get Paid 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.