Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Princesa Celina 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Round the Town 3.00 2 4-1
3 3 Slainte Mhath 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Leslie’s Loot 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Just the Oaks 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Icy Stare Down 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Brisky Frolic 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Fantail (GB) 8.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Princess Pinky 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Just a Nyquist 20.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Crowding Out 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Redzilla 30.00 9 17-1
8 8 Lola Flo 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Secret Time (GER) 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Caribbean (AUS) 2.50 1 2-1
3 2 Hammerin Aamer 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Gentleman Joe 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 3 Grumps Little Tots 3.00 4.7 9-1
1A 6 Durkin’s Call 3.00 5.9 11-1
6 7 Pit Boss 8.00 6.1 12-1
7 8 Sailor Speed 10.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Dark Storm 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lady Jasmine 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Smokie Eyes 2.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Collaboration 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Freddymo Factor 20.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Amanda’s Folly 1.60 4.5 8-1
2 2 Captivating Cara 30.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Saratoga Gaze 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Sals Dream Girl 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Waterville 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Not Phar Now 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Inflation Adjusted 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Al’s Rocket 2.50 2.9 5-1
2 2 Q F Seventy Five 3.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Afjan 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Fighter in the Win 4.50 5.5 10-1
6 6 Hold the Salsa 30.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Breakwater 8.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Centavo 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Ouster 0.60 SCRATCH
11 11 Affable Monarch 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 She Caught My Eye 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Maggie T 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Vodkatini 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Dashing Della 8.00 5 10-1
3 3 Icy Reply 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 R Girl Faith 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Carbon 4.50 7.2 14-1
7 7 Wishing On a Star 4.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sweet Mystery 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sunset Louise 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Dufresne 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Bustin Bay 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 My First Love 5.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 B B’s Busted 8.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Mia Bea Star 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Amity Island 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Doctor Jeff 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Turn of Events 5.00 3.8 7-1
1 3 Seven Scents 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Big Package 3.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Fluid Situation 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Runningwscissors 6.00 5.3 10-1
3 2 Momos 15.00 6 11-1
9 9 Grooms All Bizness 4.50 6.1 12-1
8 8 Marvalous Mike 15.00 7 13-1
1A 12 Emerald Forest 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 H P Moon 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Twenty Four Mamba 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 10 Loon Cry 1.20 1 2-1
5 4 Ace Up Her Sleeve 10.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Mz Big Bucks 6.00 3.2 6-1
10 11 Phinneys Harbor 30.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Graceful Rose 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 1 Admire My Crown 15.00 7.2 14-1
12 13 Midnite Confession 5.00 8.8 17-1
3 2 Power and Glory 30.00 9.1 17-1
1 7 Voleuse 1.20 SCRATCH
8 8 Cerretta 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Snowy Evening 6.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Spinning Colors 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Lakeside Getaway 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.