Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Condiment Girl | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Freedom Machine | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | War Ensign | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sonnyneedsmoney | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Total Discretion | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tattered Heart | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ellie Deli | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lucy Jane | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Brittle and Yoo | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fine Cotton | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scarlet Stripe | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beauxs Artes | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Academic Honor | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frango Electrico | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tetsu | 8.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Improbable Story | 20.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caramel Chip | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Tone | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Man Flintstone | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Masai Man | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sand Mountain | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Concrete Glory | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Kentucky Juvenile S.) – Kentucky Juvenile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lil Anthony | 15.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Youalmosthadme | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Who’s Snow Trouble | 15.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lou’s Legacy | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tranche | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hibernacle | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | He’s Got Swagger | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mo Saturdays | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Curlins Incharge | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kigali | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Qualified | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Spun Fantasy | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Path | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Now and Later | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Archie the Giza | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ridgerunner | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Main Line Cipher | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Georgie W | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Accident | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fixitwithforward | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Fight’n Ready | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Pitagore | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Decanted | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Strava | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Radical Right | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Run Classic | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chasing Time | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spankster | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready to Pounce | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Double Crown | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Valiant Praise | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Good Tohave Around | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kiki Krazy | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Proud Performer | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Allinthecall | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Itsablingthing | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Home Port | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Merrily Rush | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Turn | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fearless Kristie | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Doodle Doo | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Red Hot Jeanie | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Crimaldi | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Undismayed | 30.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Morning Cup | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fight Fiercely | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bucktown | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Circle Back Jack | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Group Hug | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Run Run Rapidash | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Color Field | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lend It Tewmey | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oneparticulrharbor | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Navy Soul | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocking Rocket | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Treaty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (St. Matthews Overnight S.) – St. Matthews Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miles Ahead | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bango | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Surveillance | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bagboss | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pirate Rick | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Heart Rhythm | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Collaborate | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Willtorun | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Opening Verse S.) – Opening Verse S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Annapolis | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Camp Hope | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Set Piece (GB) | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stitched | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Churchtown | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gray’s Fable | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | English Bee | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Time to Party | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Native Thunder | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Get Smokin | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky Ghost | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sky and Sand | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Race Driver | 10.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Legal Deal | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Timber | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | All Eyes West | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Solidify | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Palace Kitten | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boise | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emerald Express | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Crime Spree | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hoya Paranoya | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.