Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Condiment Girl 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Freedom Machine 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 War Ensign 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Sonnyneedsmoney 12.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Total Discretion 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Tattered Heart 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Ellie Deli 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Lucy Jane 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Brittle and Yoo 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Fine Cotton 5.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Scarlet Stripe 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Beauxs Artes 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Academic Honor 2.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Frango Electrico 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tetsu 8.00 1 2-1
4 4 Improbable Story 20.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Caramel Chip 1.40 1.9 4-1
2 2 High Tone 15.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 My Man Flintstone 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Masai Man 20.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Sand Mountain 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Concrete Glory 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Kentucky Juvenile S.) – Kentucky Juvenile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lil Anthony 15.00 1 2-1
2 2 Youalmosthadme 1.20 1.2 2-1
6 6 Who’s Snow Trouble 15.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Lou’s Legacy 10.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Tranche 12.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Hibernacle 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 He’s Got Swagger 4.00 1 2-1
13 13 Mo Saturdays 4.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Curlins Incharge 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Kigali 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Qualified 20.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Hard Spun Fantasy 20.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Hidden Path 3.00 4.5 9-1
12 12 Now and Later 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Archie the Giza 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Ridgerunner 30.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Main Line Cipher 8.00 9.7 18-1
14 14 Georgie W 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Accident 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Fixitwithforward 15.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Fight’n Ready 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Pitagore 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Decanted 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Strava 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Radical Right 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Run Classic 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Chasing Time 4.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Spankster 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ready to Pounce 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Double Crown 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Valiant Praise 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Good Tohave Around 6.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Kiki Krazy 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Proud Performer 20.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Allinthecall 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Itsablingthing 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Home Port 15.00 5 9-1
9 9 Merrily Rush 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Good Turn 30.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Fearless Kristie 3.00 5.5 10-1
12 12 Doodle Doo 20.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Red Hot Jeanie 8.00 6.3 12-1
13 13 Crimaldi 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Undismayed 30.00 1 2-1
3 3 Morning Cup 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Fight Fiercely 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Bucktown 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Circle Back Jack 12.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Group Hug 4.50 5.1 10-1
11 11 Run Run Rapidash 20.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Color Field 30.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Lend It Tewmey 12.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Oneparticulrharbor 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Navy Soul 20.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Rocking Rocket 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Treaty 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (St. Matthews Overnight S.) – St. Matthews Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Miles Ahead 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Bango 2.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Surveillance 4.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Bagboss 6.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Pirate Rick 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Heart Rhythm 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Collaborate 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Willtorun 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Opening Verse S.) – Opening Verse S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Annapolis 1.40 1 2-1
8 8 Camp Hope 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Set Piece (GB) 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Stitched 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Churchtown 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Gray’s Fable 10.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 English Bee 12.00 7 13-1
11 11 Time to Party 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Native Thunder 30.00 7 13-1
12 12 Get Smokin 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Kentucky Ghost 20.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Sky and Sand 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Race Driver 10.00 1 2-1
7 7 Legal Deal 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Dark Timber 2.50 1.9 4-1
10 10 All Eyes West 8.00 3 6-1
11 11 Solidify 12.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Palace Kitten 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Boise 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Hooperdrivesthboat 15.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Emerald Express 10.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Crime Spree 15.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Hoya Paranoya 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.