Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 West Side Girl 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Mumblebee 4.50 1.1 2-1
7 7 Hoping for a Ring 5.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Put a Bow On It 3.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Emityaaz 12.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Close to Me 20.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Flowersforshantell 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Marciamarciamarcia 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Elegance N Tonic 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 The X Factor 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Rowdy Daisy 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Zongs Irish Frost 15.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Blue Cowgirl 4.50 2.4 5-1
6 6 Lovely Joyce 8.00 2.5 5-1
12 12 Lunch Lady 20.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Hot Summer Dream 20.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Petula 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Devon’s Girl 30.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Sweet Baby Kate 50.00 9.2 17-1
10 10 Be Bo 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Molly of Stratford 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 American Band 2.00 1 2-1
1A 6 Hail Columbia 1.80 1.1 2-1
8 9 Whiskey Blue 2.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Essential Bella 8.00 5.6 11-1
1 5 Lantern’s Candy 1.80 5.8 11-1
4 3 Tap Me a Text 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 7 Forever Home 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 8 Have I Ever 20.00 8.6 16-1
2 1 Queenies Way 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mystic Pleasure 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tyrona 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Vow 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Greek Heiress 5.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Mary’s Boon 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 Chanisa 6.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Super Cindy 20.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Russian Tothe Wire 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Hamazing Debate 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Wild Rosey 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Betty Jo 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 She Be Sheehan 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Rivercrest Girl 10.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 K J’s Pistol Annie 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Fortibug 15.00 5.6 11-1
11 11 Jeri Dawn 20.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Haythere Jogeegirl 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Dancin N Thepulpit 30.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Guest in My Heart 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Early Dismissal 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Kitiara 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mrs. Beans 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 High Cruise 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Wobberjod 8.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Alexandros 3.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 One for Richie 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Freudian Fate 30.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Holding Pattern 30.00 8 15-1
10 10 Reef’s Destiny 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lookin for Loki 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Spend Benjamins 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Heroic Move 5.00 1 2-1
6 6 Silver Heist 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 El Tomate 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Recker Point 4.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Black Powder 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Sir Liam 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Jewelstown 20.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 G T Five Hundred 20.00 5 9-1
1 1 Abeliefinthislivin 4.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Line to Gain 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Mister Muldoon 50.00 11 21-1
13 13 Mendelssohn Joy 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Axton 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Natural State Breeders’ S.) – Natural State Breeders’ S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Summer Shoes 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Connie K 4.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Kantex 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Too Pretty 8.00 4 7-1
3 3 Kaboom Baby 3.00 4.2 8-1
14 14 She’s Storming 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Bennykayandsuzytoo 20.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Sulwe 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Summorya 15.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Run Fearless 15.00 7 13-1
12 12 Pattern Bet 15.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Courtney Fay 20.00 9.8 19-1
13 13 Proud Victoria 30.00 11.1 21-1
2 2 Arden Ar 50.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Don’t Forget 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Home Run Trick 15.00 2 4-1
5 5 June Gloom 20.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Chapel Barn 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Fort Peck 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Coal Truth 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Wartime Hero 3.50 4.4 8-1
8 8 Flatout Winner 10.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Tappin Fora Dance 20.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Willy the Cobbler 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.