Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 5, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Destine to Race 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 I Had That One Too 15.00 1.7 3-1
12 12 Forever After All 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Two Minute Lick 20.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Beach Walkn 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Lady Samaritan 30.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Magic Palace 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Back to Gridlock 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Heart Headed Woman 15.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Origami Girl 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 7 K’antheia 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Lady Emily Kathryn 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Grove 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Undervalued Asset 3.50 1.9 4-1
14 14 Personal Pursuit 15.00 2 4-1
10 10 Unsung Melody 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Padma 4.50 2.2 4-1
11 11 Vahva 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Ervadean 30.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Margoinabubblebath 20.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Secret Statement 30.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Goodbye Kyle 30.00 7.1 13-1
12 12 T Max 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Peacock Lass 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fogo Island 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Be Here Now 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Point Me By 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Sutherland 15.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 Siege of Boston 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Smokin’ T 6.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 Burning Bright 8.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Whisper Not (GB) 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Rustler 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Sky and Sand 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Bullseye Bun 30.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Cowboy Justice (GB) 10.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Background 20.00 10.5 20-1
7 7 We All See It 30.00 11.5 22-1
19 19 Johny’s Fireball 10.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Button Boy 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Koufax 30.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Creative Minister 2.50 SCRATCH
20 20 Flags Up 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Price Talk 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Legal Attack (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Richiesgotgame 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Heartyconstitution 0 0-1
7 7 Heartyconstitution 4.00 1 2-1
9 9 Jump Into the Fire 4.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Not So Close 3.50 3.3 6-1
15 15 Take a Stand 10.00 4.7 9-1
18 18 Sunny Isle Beach 6.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Guana Cay 30.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Fannie and Freddie 10.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Jag Warrior 10.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Into Disco 6.00 8.2 16-1
11 11 Roc’s Princess 50.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Zawish 15.00 9.2 17-1
8 8 Music Street 8.00 9.6 18-1
16 16 Mouffy 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Stepper 30.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Mambo Kitten 50.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Tap Dancing Lady 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Lisette 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 New Roo 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet) – Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 West Will Power 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Art Collector 2.50 2 4-1
5 5 Smile Happy 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Last Samurai 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Milliken 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Rich Strike 3.50 4.9 9-1
7 7 Giant Game 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Modesty S. Presented By Twinspires) – Modesty S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 McKulick (GB) 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Shantisara (IRE) 2.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Lady Rockstar (GB) 10.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 New Year’s Eve 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Didia (ARG) 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Sweet Dani Girl 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Sparkle Blue 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Henrietta Topham 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Kate’s Kingdom 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Olivia Twist 0 0-1
9 9 Munnys Gold 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Red Carpet Ready 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Accede 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Sabra Tuff 20.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Grand Love 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Olivia Twist 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Condensation 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Effortlesslyelgant 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Positano Sunset 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Turfway Park Racing & Gaming) – Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Turfway Park Racing & Gaming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Caravel 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Bay Storm 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 New Boss 15.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Oeuvre 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Salvaje 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Little Jewel 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Miner’s Queen 20.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Majestic d’Oro 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Margie’s Kitchen 50.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Sarah Harper 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Love of My Heart 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Quaria Comet 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (La Troienne S. Presented By Twinspires) – La Troienne S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Search Results 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Society 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Secret Oath 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Classy Edition 8.00 2 4-1
10 10 A Mo Reay 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Played Hard 4.50 4.5 9-1
8 8 Desert Dawn 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Sixtythreecaliber 30.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Pauline’s Pearl 8.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Soul of an Angel 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank) – Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Heavenly Sunday 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Comanche Country (IRE) 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Cairo Consort 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Preliminary (GB) 5.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Papilio (IRE) 3.50 5.8 11-1
2 2 Liguria 6.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Flashy Gem 10.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Girl Named Charlie 15.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Mission of Joy 5.00 10.1 19-1
11 11 Revalita (FR) 5.00 10.8 20-1
4 4 Sabalenka 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Longines Kentucky Oaks) – Longines Kentucky Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Botanical 0 0-1
Promiseher America 0 0-1
14 14 Pretty Mischievous 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Botanical 4.00 1.4 3-1
11 11 Defining Purpose 12.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Wet Paint 2.50 2.4 5-1
10 10 Flying Connection 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Gambling Girl 15.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 And Tell Me Nolies 15.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Wonder Wheel 12.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 The Alys Look 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Mimi Kakushi 20.00 6.3 12-1
13 13 Affirmative Lady 10.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Southlawn 8.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Dorth Vader 20.00 9.8 18-1
8 8 Promiseher America 30.00 12.2 23-1
17 17 Hoosier Philly 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Julia Shining 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Taxed 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Curl Girl 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Stellar Lady 12.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Guns n’ Graces 3.00 4 8-1
9 9 Metaphysical 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Charlie’s Wish 10.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Tough Legacy 4.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Boss Lady Bailey 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Champagne Calling 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Hayunevano 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Forever Dixie 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Cotton Candy Annie 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kid’s Last Laugh 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Coppa Girl 6.00 1.1 2-1
12 12 Pitch Clock 6.00 1.6 3-1
14 14 American Retro 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Excellent Question 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 No Guilt 10.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Huntress for Hire 8.00 4 8-1
15 15 Magic Up 10.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Twin Mischief 5.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Musical Mischief 10.00 5 9-1
16 16 Swanson Lake 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Chaina 30.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Corri Felice 15.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 Mo Happy 50.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Never Tell Patti 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Islandinthestream 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.