Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 6, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Federal Judge 0 0-1
1 1 Extra Anejo 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Olazabal 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Federal Judge 2.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Stud Lovin 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Dangerous Ride 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Deer District 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Backside Buzz 20.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Western Ghent 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Chloe’s Dream 0 0-1
7 7 Just a Photo 15.00 1 2-1
6 6 Quaternion 6.00 1.5 3-1
8 8 Quality Chic 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Sir Rock 15.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Real Naughty 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Chloe’s Dream 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Harbour Bridge 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Texas Pride 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Savage Kiss 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Cape Trafalgar 2.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Shockwave 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Coastal Defense 0 0-1
1 1 Bright Future 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 King Ottoman 3.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 El Oriente (CHI) 10.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 Super Design 12.00 5.5 10-1
14 14 Petulante 6.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Embrace 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Pipes and Drums 30.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Coastal Defense 12.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Major Blue 12.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Brigadier General 12.00 8.2 16-1
15 15 Flags Up 15.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Mohaafeth 50.00 9.9 19-1
8 8 Violent City 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Major Fed 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Transect 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Kendall-jackson Winery

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Wicked Halo 0 0-1
Matareya 0 0-1
Goodnight Olive 0 0-1
2 2 Goodnight Olive 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Wicked Halo 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Matareya 3.50 3 6-1
4 4 Travel Column 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Hot and Sultry 6.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 My Destiny 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Speak of the Devil (FR) 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Fluffy Socks 4.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Haughty 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Spendarella 1.40 2.5 5-1
4 4 Wakanaka (IRE) 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Sharp Hero 50.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Sister Lou Ann 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Freedom Speaks 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Zozos 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Kupuna 10.00 1.6 3-1
12 12 Caddo River 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Baby Yoda 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Surly Furious 20.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Masqueparade 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Three Technique 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Promise Keeper 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Noble Drama 30.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Kneedeepinsnow 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Gulfstream Way 30.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Perfect Flight 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Cohere Health) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Cohere Health

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Arrest Me Red 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Big Invasion 3.50 1.1 2-1
2 2 Go Bears Go (IRE) 12.00 1.1 2-1
11 11 Motorious (GB) 8.00 2 4-1
6 6 Bad Beat Brian 15.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Nobals 20.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Carotari 10.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Evan Sing 12.00 6.9 13-1
14 14 Noble Reflection 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Just Might 20.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Oceanic 15.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Nothing Better 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Necker Island 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Artemus Citylimits 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Twinspires) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Frosted Departure 20.00 1 2-1
12 12 Gun Pilot 5.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Lugan Knight 20.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Echo Again 3.50 2.1 4-1
11 11 Gilmore 12.00 3 6-1
7 7 Fort Bragg 4.50 3 6-1
2 2 Tall Boy 20.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Curly Jack 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Bourbon Bash 12.00 4 8-1
13 13 Damon’s Mound 20.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 General Jim 4.00 4.5 9-1
14 14 Freezing Point 50.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Kangaroo Court 8.00 7 13-1
4 4 Midnight Rising 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S. Presented By Bmw) – American Turf S. Presented By Bmw

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mendelssohns March 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Major Dude 2.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Johannes 15.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Mo Stash 10.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Far Bridge 3.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Carl Spackler (IRE) 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Desert Duke 30.00 3.1 6-1
13 13 Andthewinneris 30.00 3.8 7-1
14 14 Webslinger 20.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Anglophile 50.00 6 11-1
16 16 Scoobie Quando 30.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Behind Enemy Lines (GB) 30.00 9.4 18-1
10 10 Otago 30.00 10.3 19-1
15 15 Wadsworth 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Funtastic Again 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Talk of the Nation 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Cody’s Wish 0 0-1
7 7 Cody’s Wish 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Tejano Twist 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Endorsed 5.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Fortin Hill 20.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Here Mi Song 30.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Hoist the Gold 30.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Steal Sunshine 30.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Get Her Number 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Sir Alfred James 50.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 C Z Rocket 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 White Abarrio 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Up to the Mark 0 0-1
5 5 Up to the Mark 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Hong Kong Harry (IRE) 3.50 2 4-1
10 10 Bye Bye Melvin 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Santin 4.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Earls Rock (IRE) 10.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Ocean Atlantique 20.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Spooky Channel 5.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Wolfie’s Dynaghost 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Steady On 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Master Piece (CHI) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Confidence Game 0 0-1
Mage 0 0-1
Hit Show 0 0-1
Mage 0 0-1
Mage 0 0-1
Mage 0 0-1
6 6 Kingsbarns 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Hit Show 30.00 1.7 3-1
12 12 Jace’s Road 50.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Tapit Trice 5.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Reincarnate 50.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Sun Thunder 50.00 4.2 8-1
14 14 Angel of Empire 8.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Verifying 15.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Disarm 30.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Mage 15.00 6.3 12-1
18 18 Rocket Can 30.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Two Phil’s 12.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Confidence Game 20.00 8.1 15-1
17 17 Derma Sotogake (JPN) 10.00 8.9 17-1
21 21 Cyclone Mischief 30.00 10.3 19-1
16 16 Raise Cain 50.00 10.9 21-1
22 22 Mandarin Hero (JPN) 20.00 11.9 22-1
23 23 King Russell 50.00 12.4 23-1
10 10 Practical Move 10.00 SCRATCH
20 20 Continuar (JPN) 50.00 SCRATCH
19 19 Lord Miles 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Forte 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Skinner 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Shopper’s Revenge 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Seeking Unity 10.00 3 6-1
5 5 B Minor 10.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Classic Legacy 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Equivoque 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Promise Me a Ride 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Bo Cruz 5.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Funny Uncle 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Act a Fool 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Let It Ride 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Single Ruler 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Dillinger 0 0-1
3 3 Last Dawn 20.00 1 2-1
12 12 Mabuhay 30.00 2.5 5-1
14 14 Dillinger 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Macho Villa 30.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Everso Mischievous 2.50 4.5 9-1
5 5 Golden Sombrero 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Noble Reality (FR) 15.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Eirik Ridge 15.00 8 15-1
4 4 Five Star G Man 30.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Northern Invader 12.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Fear of Union 15.00 9.6 18-1
16 16 Le Bar 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lookin for Roses 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Wicked Again 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Mullikin 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Simovic 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.