Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mischief Joke 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Whatchatalkinabout 1.20 2.9 5-1
1 1 Subscribed 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Antonio of Venice 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Follow Your Arrow 10.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Tech Duinn 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ship Cadet 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Heathcliff 2.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Twisted Filigree 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Mourne Mountains 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Drew d’Oro 15.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Reapply 30.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Air Invasion 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Win for Gold 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Naked and Famous 4.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Nolo Contesto 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Jester’s Song 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Always Charming 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Charlie Five O 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Alternate Reality 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Crowding Out 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Spicy Margarita 5.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Strong Odor 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Jill’s a Hot Mess 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Itsakeyper 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 More Mango 20.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Proper Grammar 30.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Jackie the Joker 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Limani 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Wine Goddess 12.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Mrs Bell 12.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Alice Kramden 3.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 My Inner Voice 20.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Derwin’s Paynter 20.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Bustinroxy 12.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Magnolia Wind 15.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 My Malibu Honey 4.50 5.2 10-1
1 1 Scherzer 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Forallthegirls 20.00 9.2 17-1
3 3 Special Pal 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
You Look Cold 0 0-1
6 6 You Look Cold 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Kant Hurry Love 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Bank On Anna 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Lady Milagro 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Customerexperience 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Rosebug 2.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Hydra 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dontmesswithtess 1.00 1 2-1
7 7 Bella Principessa 15.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Susie’s Saver 20.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Divine Wine 15.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Except Temptation 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Lady of Thoroton 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Synonymous 20.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Freudian 10.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 From Hello 6.00 7.7 14-1
10 10 Frosty Invasion 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Lola Flo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Gold Fever S.) – Gold Fever S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Squire Creek 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Andiamo a Firenze 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Joey Freshwater 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Drew’s Gold 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Tuskegee Airmen 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Prove Right 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Love to Shop 4.50 1 2-1
6 6 I’m Glad (IRE) 15.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Wonder Girl 15.00 1.9 3-1
10 10 Reflexivity (IRE) 8.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 St. Benedicts Prep 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Tactical Joke 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Rugelach 3.50 4.5 8-1
9 9 Quiescent 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 May Fane 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 No Show Sammy Jo (GB) 10.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Dark Princess 20.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.