Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 12, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stuck On You 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Liam’s Message 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Boomin’ Belle 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Prognosticate 4.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Wreck It Ruby 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Afterneath 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Redheadedstranger 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jay Vee Bee 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Amani’s Eagle 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Madison Luvs Duke 2.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Just Call Ray 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Mugsy Malone 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Trigger Happy 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Loved 0.80 1 2-1
5 5 Let’s Duet 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Opening Night 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 She’s Keen 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Chiquita Mosca 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nifty 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Flint Ridge 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Divine Leader 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Awesome Aaron 10.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Steinbeck 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Coltonator 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Amenset 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Zippin Pippin 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Divine Grace 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Shackled by Lust 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Gormleyesque 10.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Jackie’s Spirit 4.50 5.4 10-1
9 9 Coexist 5.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Brisbane Road 8.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Dream Trap 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Batukhan (IRE) 4.50 1 2-1
9 9 Tropic Storm 8.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Wicca Wisdom 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Tuskegee Cat 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Motown Missile 4.50 4 8-1
6 6 Yono 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Writeitontheice 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Nicholas Jones 4.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Paid in Full 10.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Born Flawless 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fire On Time 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Altered Shot 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Golden Bell 2.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Princedreamcess 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Stella Noir 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Ready for Change 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Boudoir Burlesque 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Strikingly Spun 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 C C Cruise Control 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Root Cause 2.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Mustang Lady 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Unstable Princess 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Demi 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Clever Joke 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Jenny Lind 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 Bolivie (IRE) 4.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Malawnia 20.00 7 13-1
14 14 Catherine Blaze 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Shoplifter 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Divinely Bolt 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Knockyoursocksoff 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lily’s Creed 20.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Nomadic Pride 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 She’s Lookin Lucky 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Majestic Flag 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Matlock 3.50 4.3 8-1
9 9 Vail of Honor 4.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Noble Connection 8.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Lucky Smile 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Vortex 10.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Mifflin 10.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Strickland 15.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Magna Ruler 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Johnny’s Moment 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.