Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 14, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady Goldstart 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 A Real Jewel 3.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Racetothefinish 4.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Docs Seven 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Reliant 6.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 Tiltingatwindmills 10.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 High Speed 5.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Holdontoyourtiara 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Big Boss Ben 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Color Field 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Commander Carl 3.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Haskelled 2.50 1.4 3-1
4 4 Major Contender 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Right of Rush 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Riley Bee 15.00 5 10-1
7 7 River Boy 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 The Princess Says 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Misread 2.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Royal Blood 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Hurry Up Hannah 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Crimaldi 3.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Goldys Lock 8.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 My Blue Valentine 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Noises Off 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 My Uncle Leon 5.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Earl of Dassel 12.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Patrolman 15.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Peek 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Gold Franc (IRE) 5.00 5 10-1
6 6 Dream Force 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Six Missions 4.50 5.2 10-1
9 9 Fireball Fun 8.00 10.3 20-1
13 13 Saturday Long Legs 20.00 10.5 20-1
12 12 Pitagore 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Stormin Army 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Coal Boss 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Harry Hood 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Taking Candy 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Fixitwithforward 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Like a Saltshaker 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Crazy Legs Hirsch 4.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Dark Hedges 3.50 4.9 9-1
9 9 Black Storm 20.00 5.6 10-1
1 1 Malibu Time 6.00 7 13-1
8 8 Santa Cruiser 12.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Firery Tale 4.50 7.2 14-1
5 5 Hot Pastrami 6.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Bravo Bravo 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Absolute Courage 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Dual Monarchy 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Coach Petro 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Mad Hustle 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Washington’s Union 10.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Rio Moon 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Glen Airy 30.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Marty’s Magic 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Remastered 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Schmear 20.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Fujin 5.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Cloud Without Rein 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sue Ellen Mishkin 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Enchanted Nile 3.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Donya Know It 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Pistol 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Music Amore 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Mirth ‘n Merriment 4.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Kimberley Dream 20.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Gin N Sin 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Salute the Stars 0 0-1
5 5 Really Good 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Baby Billy 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Escapologist 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Our Dream Rye’d 8.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Baseline Beater 20.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Clear the Air 15.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Tiger Paw (IRE) 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Salute the Stars 12.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Black Apple 20.00 6.9 13-1
13 13 Redeemer 5.00 9.3 17-1
8 8 Coalminer’s Kitten 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Sam Stormy 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Santorini 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Under Oath 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Top of the Charts 12.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Bourbon Heist 4.50 2.9 6-1
7 7 Bron and Brow 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Unpredictable Bay 15.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 He’smyhoneybadger 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Happy Jack 6.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Drive for Fun 10.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Minnesota Ready 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Texas Red Hot 20.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Broken Rib 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Trumptastic 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Chiron 20.00 2.3 4-1
12 12 Pursuit of Power 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Sheriff Ronnie 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Redemption Time 8.00 5.6 10-1
9 9 Brigade Commander 3.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Gilded Craken 12.00 6 11-1
2 2 Moreau 10.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Smile Mon 12.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Zaphod 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tiz Wicked Strong 15.00 8.2 16-1
11 11 Vigano 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.