Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chowmein 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Supercool 3.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Texas Ted 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Hail Allen 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Velocimo 8.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Mr. Commander 2.50 6 11-1
4 4 Charlie Whiskey 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Transparency 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Precursory 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Story Hour 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Comedy Act 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Raindrops On Roses 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Music App 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hocus 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Rider’s Special 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Insolito 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Ignitis 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 American Icon 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Classy Socks 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 With Purpose 1.80 SCRATCH
2 2 Full Time Job 10.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Midway Miracle 4.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Scotch No Rocks 8.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 King of Kentucky 2.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Left Pocket Money 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Gary’s Flying Lion 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Cousin Odell 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Town Branch 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Switzer 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Baby Quinn 10.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Vale 6.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Infiltrator 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Louisianimal 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 French Composer 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Hap’s Victory 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Fast as Flight 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Justify My Love (BRZ) 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Arm Candy 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Candy Light 2.50 5.4 10-1
3 3 Henrietta Topham 3.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Intrigue 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Valentina Day 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Wave of Goodness 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Briterdayzahead 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Wild Thinker 2.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Cloud Without Rein 15.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Ludwig 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Top Secret 15.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Cuore Sacro 4.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Unwrapped 15.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Bolt Action 12.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Son of a Gray 20.00 8.7 17-1
8 8 Holy Moly Abraham 30.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Smoke Wagon 10.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Stormin Army 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Zaphod 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Saudi Crown 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Blue Light 10.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Page One 4.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Charter Oak 30.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Greener Pastures 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Angkor 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Appeal Denied 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Sweet Cherry Pie 3.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Favorite Outlaw 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Caroom 3.50 1 2-1
12 12 St. Neots 5.00 1.9 3-1
8 8 Highest Rated (IRE) 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Fightertown 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Now That Ican Rock 12.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Roenick 30.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Taking Candy 6.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Harry Hood 4.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Big Elm 15.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Athens Moon 12.00 10.1 19-1
3 3 Illegal 20.00 10.7 20-1
5 5 Crusader Conrad 12.00 11.4 21-1
16 16 Millers Rite 12.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Stand Proud 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Accident 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Oscargot 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Decanted 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.