Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 26, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kall Kat 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Tamara’s Way 4.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Cortado 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Mahomebred 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Soulful Tara 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Dream Trap 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Towing 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Raymond 2.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Amani’s Eagle 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Aspen Club 6.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 East of India 15.00 3 6-1
6 6 Criminal Defense 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Krickle 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Intermittent Fast 4.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Foolish Front Fifi 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Hockey 6.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Risky Spirit 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Sharp Tune 6.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 What’s Crackin 8.00 7.7 15-1
7 7 Crystal Symphony 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Champagne Affair 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Judy’s Way 3.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Blue Grass Anna 3.50 1.9 4-1
7 7 High Speed 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Supertaleofhoudini 15.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 April’s No Fool 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 U So Money Baby 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Silver Dust 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Improbable Story 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 My Bariley 5.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Kunshan Bridge 2.50 5.9 11-1
5 5 Maximum Impact 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 What a Country 3.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Off the Cuff 0 0-1
4 4 Absolute Courage 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Off the Cuff 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Crossing 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Tollgate Canyon 3.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Cote d’Ivoire 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 I Run 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Jor El 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gulfstream Way 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Devil’s Tower 2.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Legal Deal 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Fitzpatrick 2.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Lost in Limbo 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 All Eyes West 10.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Emerald Express 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Bound for Nowhere 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Bad Beat Brian 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Just Might 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Surveillance 5.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Pirate Rick 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Smokin’ Jay 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Friar Laurence 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Li Mu Bai (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Fieldstone 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Long Crow 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Longshadow 15.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 He’s Got This 5.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Millard’s Smile 20.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Job Security 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Coastal Defense 2.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.