Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 27, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Guana Cay 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Music Amore 10.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Shezz Koldazice 2.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Kimberley Dream 15.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Hashtag Winner 8.00 4 7-1
1 1 Waters of Merom 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Good Penny 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bali Dreamin 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Ball Gown 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Social Mandate 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Ship It 4.50 4 8-1
2 2 Puglia 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Magna Massa 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Monocacy 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Coexist 3.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Anoria 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Liam’s Message 3.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Lucky Lesson 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Wreck It Ruby 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Luxuriate 4.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Noshugforpop 12.00 8.2 15-1
1 1 Princess Mitole 4.50 8.3 16-1
7 7 Easy Red 5.00 8.5 16-1
6 6 Lou Anna 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bear Oak 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fifty Cent Dollars 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Just Call Ray 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 On a Spree 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Don’t Forget 2.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Tapage 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Happy Soul 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Love and Money 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Bout Time 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Quaria Comet 10.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Nota Bene 5.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Souper Munnings 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Get the Candy 10.00 8 15-1
3 3 Sharp Hero 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lisette 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Jump Into the Fire 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Royal Take Charge 2.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Music Street 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Jungle Juice (IRE) 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mambo Kitten 30.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Academic Honor 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Forever After All 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Lady Samaritan 6.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Corsini 1.80 2 4-1
5 5 Toffee 20.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Insensitive 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Her Ladyship 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Lucky Ana 30.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Domina 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Three Technique 0 0-1
7 7 Kupuna 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Santos Dumont 6.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Three Technique 2.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Major Fed 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Britain’s Kitten 5.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Perfect Flight 5.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Native Thunder 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Alva Starr 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Charriere 6.00 2 4-1
8 8 Jersey Pearl 5.00 2 4-1
6 6 Fogo Island 3.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Tammy Tap Tap Tap 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Ervadean 12.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Bobbie Sox 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Zapple 6.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Margoinabubblebath 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Keertana S.) – Keertana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Miss Yearwood 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Sparkle Blue 3.50 1.1 2-1
12 12 Viburnum 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Quality Star 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Exit Soul 5.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Under One Sky 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Lovely Princess 5.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Talbeyah (IRE) 12.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 I’m So Sorry 15.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Sinfiltre 4.50 8.4 16-1
1 1 Lady Arsinoe 12.00 10.7 20-1
11 11 Implosion 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mullikin 1.40 1 2-1
7 7 Pilote Comete 20.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Space 8.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 De la Calles 6.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Testimony Time 20.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Paddington 3.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Cusp 8.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Mafia 20.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Bayou Spirit 12.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Vigano 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 First Player 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.