Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 28, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stanley Market 4.50 1 2-1
2 2 Stopshoppingamy 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Duplicitous 8.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 La Tourista 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Owen’s Pleasure 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Miss Moon Pie 15.00 3 6-1
5 5 Gianna’s Gift 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Chileno 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Constitutional Law 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Dog Red 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 O P Firecracker 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Apollo Rising 10.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Princely 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Neighbor 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 American Icon 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lincoln Highway 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Accident 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Curlins Incharge 3.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Soybean Man 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Berrettini 10.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Archie the Giza 8.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Qaader 20.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Surface to Air 10.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Pitagore 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Game Warden 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Millers Rite 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 My Boy Tony 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Gettleman 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Idratherbeblessed 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Mama’s Gold 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Gold Luck 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Humor Me Now 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Eddie M 4.50 5 9-1
4 4 Missin Curfew 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Lazarus 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fast N Happy 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Under Advisement 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Uncorked 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Mo Town Mayhem 6.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Happy Am I 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Pumpkin Scone 2.50 5.9 11-1
7 7 Absinthe 8.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Call Again 6.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Kaufymaker 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Madrilena (ARG) 5.00 1.9 4-1
12 12 Daring Do 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Atlantic Strike 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 Frozen Solid 12.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Margie’s Kitchen 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Linguistic 4.00 6 11-1
3 3 Quick Munny 8.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Laura’s Charm 30.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Sunday Grace 30.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Awesome Lawson 30.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Boudoir Burlesque 30.00 8.5 16-1
14 14 Rock Star Parking 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Alarm Clock 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Zambezi 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Midnight Taxes 6.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Lark’s Mischief 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Deer District 2.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Bohemian Bo 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Stud Lovin 5.00 5 9-1
6 6 Storm Daddy 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Graphic Detail 3.50 1 2-1
1A 9 Floki’s Flight 4.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Debate 10.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Miacomet 6.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Cousin Larry 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 10 Bad to the Bones 3.00 4 8-1
4 4 York Tavern 12.00 5.1 10-1
2 1 Highway Robber 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 3 Mobster Gun 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ben Diesel 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 King Curlin 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Quality Chic 3.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Decanted 2.50 2 4-1
6 6 Qualified 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Self Rule 20.00 5.7 11-1
10 10 Runningforjoy 20.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Truly Quality 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Fireball Fun 8.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 American Only 20.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Oscargot 12.00 10.1 19-1
7 7 Miracle On Ice 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Andy Cant 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Harbour Bridge 2.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.