Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 21, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Stormy Soul 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Big Investment 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Tricky Magician 3.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Sea Scout 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Racing in the Rain 6.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Wenjack 20.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Maximus Momentus 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sing Dixie 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Video Vida 2.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Unexpected Outcome (IRE) 3.50 3.1 6-1
8 8 It’s Me Mario 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Snookered 20.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 My Song Baby 3.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Dio Brando 20.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 J M R Turek 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Town’s Warrior 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Kid Marvelous 4.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Royal Quality 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 The New Maybe 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Speedy N Smart 20.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Alpha Meister 2.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Star Redemption 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jack the Cat 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Dixie Giant 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Solar 1.80 2.8 5-1
4 4 H C Holiday 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Reliability 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Native Prince 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Sunrise Drive 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Desolator 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Forester’s Turn 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Big Warden 3.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Tall Water 3.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Executive Chairman 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Supremeaction 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Upstart Gentleman 20.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Dr Chappell 20.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Bokermin 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Napa Spirit (IRE) 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Silent Reserve 2.50 1.1 2-1
5 5 Abisko 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Discreet Tune 10.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Western Trouble 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Galvaston 15.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Determined Fury 4.50 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sea to Air 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Sand Dancer 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Kiddie Holiday 1.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Quiet Out East 2.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Lion Kingdom 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Canadian Pharoah 15.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Just Start Me Up 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Full Extreme 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mentoring 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Gizmo’s Mission 6.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Chunky Monkey 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Tory’s Holiday 4.00 4 8-1
5 5 Mr. Marshall 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Wild Conversation 12.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Dancin’ Deputy 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Seattle Point 20.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Palace Ring 12.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.