Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 4, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 5 Wicked Again 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Ludwig 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 2 Opportunity Set 1.20 2.5 5-1
2 1 Macho Villa 10.00 3.1 6-1
1A 4 Index Fund 1.20 3.2 6-1
6 7 Metallurgic 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 6 Party With Smarty 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Uncle Eddie 8.00 1 2-1
2B 14 Yaqui Valley 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 6 Cptbobsbtwentynine 3.00 2.2 4-1
11 12 Rudy Rudy Rudy 3.50 2.8 5-1
12 13 Crown That Saint 2.50 4.5 8-1
5 4 Piccata Prince 10.00 4.9 9-1
2 7 Better Luck 5.00 4.9 9-1
4 3 Stuck On You 8.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Honest Al 6.00 7 13-1
6 5 Mucho de La Mancha 20.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Glacial Power 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Happy Baytown 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Real Sensation 12.00 SCRATCH
1A 11 Joe’s Dream 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Risk Profile 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Bourbon’s Hope 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Printrack 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Zertz 5.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Striking Speed 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Money Mike 4.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Turnsandconditions 6.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Charlie Five O 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Jannie Mae 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Kara Para 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Jessica’s Ride 6.00 1.8 3-1
13 13 Stone of Destiny 4.50 2.7 5-1
12 12 Follow the Fed 15.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Sperss 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Outta the Cloud 30.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Striking Melody 30.00 9 17-1
16 16 Embraceable Gal 8.00 10.6 20-1
4 4 So Are You 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Lem Me Drink 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Berning Honor 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Pinstripepizzo 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Jayla 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bella Sonadora 50.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lakeside Getaway 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Patient Capital 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Sky and Sand 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Baltasar 5.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Perfect Day 12.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Carmichael 4.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Laughing Boy 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Major Blue 12.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Joking Way 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Fast Boat to Skye 0 0-1
4 4 Happy Bob 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Fast Boat to Skye 4.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Fire Baron 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Eridromos 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Run Diem Z 10.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Creation of Adam 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Hineni 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Assertive Attitude 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Fasig-tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational S.) – Fasig-tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Xigera 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 Selenaia (IRE) 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Papilio (IRE) 5.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Elusive Princess (FR) 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Solo Album 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Allamericanbeauty 20.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Strikingly Spun 15.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Caroline Street 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Honor D Lady 20.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 American Sonja (GB) 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Aspen Grove (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame S.) – National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 More Than Looks 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Carl Spackler (IRE) 4.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 General Jim 6.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Bat Flip 8.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Behind Enemy Lines (GB) 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Appraise (IRE) 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ocean Vision (IRE) 15.00 5 10-1
5 5 Mischievous Angel 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Nagirroc 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Mysterious Night (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Bean Christine 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tosconova Beauty 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Missing Fortune 6.00 1.3 2-1
6 6 Chasing Daylight 8.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Timely Conquest 4.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Big Hazel 5.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Ranting 12.00 5.6 10-1
2 2 Lavon 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Disruption 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 One Giant Leap 1.80 1 2-1
4 4 Foliage 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Amani’s Eagle 10.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Ignited 6.00 5.1 10-1
13 13 Gabe 8.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 He’s Got It 20.00 7.1 13-1
14 14 Courthouse Cove 4.50 7.2 14-1
10 10 The Cobbler 30.00 8.5 16-1
5 5 Truebelieve 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Athenry 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hereby 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Deep Cover 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Detroit City 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Science (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Suerte 10.00 1 2-1
14 14 Chileno 2.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Shinsun 4.50 4.6 9-1
13 13 South Street 1.80 5.5 10-1
5 5 Skylander 15.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Yono 30.00 7 13-1
7 7 Miracle Mike 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Skate to Heaven 15.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Jarreau 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Tulchan 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lord Flintshire 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Unleash the Power 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Forwardly 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Maythisbetheone 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.