Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Friday, August 11, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Moore’s Law 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Mount Craig 2.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Hero’s Medal 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 Braggadocious 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Game Keeper 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Brees 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tosconova Beauty 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Big Bean Christine 2.50 1.1 2-1
1 1 Chasing Daylight 8.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Timely Conquest 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Missing Fortune 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Ranting 8.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Big Hazel 4.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Lavon 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Rocky Sky (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Kalifornia Queen (GER) 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Canisy 3.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Poca Mucha 4.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Royal Take Charge 1.80 SCRATCH
8 8 Favor 1.20 SCRATCH
2 2 Lady Rockstar (GB) 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Parnac (FR) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Union Avenue H.) – Union Avenue H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Grannys Connection 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Kant Hurry Love 2.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Bank On Anna 12.00 4 7-1
3 3 Tempermental 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Vallelujah 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Betsy Blue 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Breeze Easy (GB) 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Gal in a Rush 3.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Bowl of Cherries 3.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Lady Milagro 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Get the Candy 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Repealing 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Glitter Up 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Unsung Melody 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Marsalis 0 0-1
6 6 Marsalis 2.50 1 2-1
4 3 Today’s Flavor 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 8 Rotknee 2.00 3.4 6-1
2 1 Dot’s Dollar 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 5 Colonel Bowman 4.50 4.6 9-1
5 4 Provocateur 8.00 5.4 10-1
3 2 Night Time 15.00 7.5 14-1
1A 7 Clem Labine 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Trust Fund 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Vettriano 1.80 1.8 3-1
8 8 Catalina Crush 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Canigetaloan 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Perliano 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Mad Banker 12.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Drinking Solo 12.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Blue Eighty Five 12.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Inonit 30.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Mama’s Middie 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Stormy’s Dreaming 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dorothys Happiness 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Strawberry Kwik 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Gucci Man 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Love That Bird 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Tall Paul 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame S.) – National Museum Of Racing Hall Of Fame S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
More Than Looks 0 0-1
2 2 Carl Spackler (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Appraise (IRE) 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 General Jim 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 More Than Looks 2.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Mischievous Angel 10.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Behind Enemy Lines (GB) 8.00 7 13-1
4 4 Ocean Vision (IRE) 12.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Mysterious Night (IRE) 10.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Bat Flip 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Evan Shipman H.) – Evan Shipman H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Americanrevolution 1.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sheriff Bianco 8.00 2 4-1
2 2 Dr Ardito 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Bankit 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Barese 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Lobsta 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sundaeswithsandy 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Whittington Park 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Quick Power Nap 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Magniloquent 6.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Linarite 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Three Unions 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Serenade Soldier 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Diamond Collector 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Kreesa La Wrote 30.00 10.3 20-1
11 11 Candy Monet 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Saratoga Gaze 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Rosemary Potatoes 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Now Showing 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Michele M. 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sweetest Princess 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Ghostly Girl 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Anileate 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Huntress Moon 15.00 4 7-1
4 4 Sicilian Grandma 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Lady Firefoot 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Smokin’ Hot Kitty 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Miscreant 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Yogi 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Red Hot Chick 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.