Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Bossy Jeans 0 0-1
9 10 Grab the Glory 5.00 1 2-1
5 6 Run for Your Honey 4.50 1.3 2-1
6 7 Once an Eagle 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 3 Bossy Jeans 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 1 Bernietakescharge 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 2 Downtown Channel 8.00 5.4 10-1
7 8 Bertrille 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 4 Denver’s Alley 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 9 Alittlebitnaughty 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 5 Speights Dance 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Thestral 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Don’t Tell Amy 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Graceful 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Tooshay 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Dark Princess 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Tres Chic (ARG) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Suspended Campaign 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Vegas Weekend 10.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Its Cold in Dehere 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Gringotts 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Vitaemi 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Greatest Love 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Timed Out 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Explosive Exchange 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 World Traveler 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Now Showing 12.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Need Some Money 12.00 3 6-1
10 10 Proud Foot 5.00 3 6-1
12 12 Shigeko 10.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Will Be Famous 6.00 9 17-1
9 9 Saratoga Gaze 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Rosemary Potatoes 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Three Girls 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Maddie’s Grace 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Rum Runner Ready 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Jarreau 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Unleash the Power 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Splendid Summer 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Lord Flintshire 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Front Man 6.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Buckortwo 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Ghostlyprince 10.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Shinsun 4.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Wisecraken 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Kingdom On Paws 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Chileno 99.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fight Fiercely 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cuz Ur Pretty 4.50 1 2-1
1A 6 Starship Defiant 10.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 Three Rivers 4.00 2.4 5-1
3 2 Sa Foradada 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 5 Mongolian Panther 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 9 Portage 3.50 4.7 9-1
6 7 Divine Cross 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 8 Cupid’s Heart 1.80 SCRATCH
2 1 Mursal 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 South Street 1.00 1 2-1
3 3 Freeze Pop 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Lucky Lucky Luke 3.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Happy Bob 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Achilles Heel 15.00 6 11-1
5 5 Strong Light 30.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Boys Code 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Break the Ice 15.00 8.6 16-1
1 1 Mama Banned Me 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Suzie O’cain S.) – Suzie O’cain S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Collaboration 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Kosuke 6.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Silver Skillet 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Smokie Eyes 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Im Just Kiddin 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Orange Freeze 5.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Snowy Evening 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Bernt Again 15.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Thundara 12.00 8.2 15-1
10 10 Amanda’s Folly 1.80 SCRATCH
11 11 Ichiban 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 True Martini 6.00 1 2-1
4 3 Red Butterfly 3.50 3 6-1
1A 11 Pauciloquent 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Purest Performance 15.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Marley’s Ghost 2.00 4 8-1
1 9 Galatrona 5.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Roxen 30.00 7.6 14-1
12 13 Knockzcatoffzfence 6.00 8 15-1
10 10 Beautifully Wicked 30.00 8.2 15-1
6 5 Mo Damorninggrouch 8.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Army of Thoughts 12.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Showemyourheels 2.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Sonja Knips 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.