Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, August 17, 2023

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Ride Up 0 0-1
7 7 Ride Up 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Bargaining Power 4.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Assertive Attitude 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mo Than Luck 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Sippican Shop 3.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Golden Purchase 30.00 6 11-1
4 4 I Love Cara 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
Pleasant Passage 0 0-1
2 1 Sister Lou Ann 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Pleasant Passage 4.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Not So Close 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 3 Chili Flag (FR) 1.80 2.6 5-1
3 2 Saffron Moon 1.40 3.7 7-1
1A 9 Toned Up 1.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Tizzy in the Sky 1.20 SCRATCH
8 8 Pistol Liz Ablazen 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Leave No Trace 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Barrage 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Citizen K 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Rough Draft 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Agent Creed 2.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Frank’s Art 4.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Fatima’s Blessing 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Battle Scars 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Wild Banker 0.80 SCRATCH
8 8 Zeebear 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dr. Perry 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Camm’ Duke 10.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Western Ghent 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Watasha 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 V Mart 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Built to Last 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Leslie’s Loot 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Ginuccha 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Flowers for Me 10.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Miz Mastery 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Hayes Bay 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Boxed Wine 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Accommodate Eva 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 La Colorada 12.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Azteca Stardust 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 King James 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sugar Gray Leonard 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Burn Jakey Burn 15.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Forward Move 5.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Mama’s Gold 20.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Ignited 8.00 6 11-1
12 12 Let Freedom Spring 5.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Image of Quality 8.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 War Terminator 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Foliage 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Ski Patrol 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Devil’s Cay 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 4 Tangential 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mirabella 4.50 2.2 4-1
9 9 Bel Rosso 30.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Sister Maha 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 No Deli (IRE) 8.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Fancy Stax 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Mom’s Right 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Isola (IRE) 8.00 6.3 12-1
3 2 Notinamillionyears (IRE) 3.50 7.3 14-1
2 1 Kick a Rhyme (IRE) 10.00 7.6 14-1
4 3 Doral 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 La Girvina 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rhiannon 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Miss Our Hero 3.50 SCRATCH
1A 16 Revolving Credit 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Paris Style (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Win for Gold 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Kunshan Bridge 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Big Venezuela 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Clubhouse 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Giroovin 2.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Pay Zone 10.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 The Cobbler 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Rick Violette S.) – Rick Violette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vacation Dance 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Willintoriskitall 15.00 2 4-1
6 6 Let’s Go Big Blue 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Itsallcomintogetha 4.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Ramblin’ Wreck 1.80 5.1 10-1
2 2 King of Comedy 2.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 3 Russi 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Vaunted 15.00 1.6 3-1
2 1 Twirling Vine 6.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Screw Loose 6.00 2.8 5-1
12 12 Prince of Truth 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Locke and Key 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Paschal Moon 12.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Scherzando 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cash Bail 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Laurel Valley 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Street Rod 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Proud Alumnus 50.00 SCRATCH
1A 13 Petrolo 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.